Ever since the election of Donald Trump as the president elect of the United States of America world capitals have been in a tizzy. The unpredictable Trump has at various and frequent times tweeted a Trump administration's new approach to global and domestic issues. These tweets strike a hugely discordant note in the phlegmatic world of international relations and fragile environment of racial and religious harmony in the US.
From immigration to relations amongst nations, from world trade to national security considerations, every facet of conventional wisdom is being turned on its head because of the Trump doctrine. The emergence of Trump is a direct consequence of the Bush/Obama global war on terror. The pursuit of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, the divergence into the Islamic heartlands of Iraq and Syria, and the massive displacement of millions of people in the Middle East culminating in the deluge of refugees streaming into Europe are some factors that have created lethal global uncertainty and gaping American weakness. Unfortunately, in the process Islamic world has inherited a highly negative image in general and Pakistan in particular has been painted as the epicenter of Islamic terrorism, primarily because Pakistan has become the fall guy for Obama's failure in Afghanistan.
The massive hemorrhaging of the US economy since 9/11 has taken a huge bite out of American capacity to pursue a globalist agenda. Having financed the huge costs of 'war on terror' through massive debt creation. The twin evils of fiscal and current account deficit so familiar to Pakistanis have taken the wind out of American will for financing international interventions. The coalition of the willing to take on responsibilities in hostile foreign locations is now too expensive to fund.
Thus, Trump is all set to turn America into a 'fortress America' comprising border walls and focused on internal infrastructure and economies of decaying cities of the rust belt. China, Asia and Latin America are in his gun sights for bringing back the millions of Jobs he thinks have been stolen by these regions through unfair and bad trade deals. The Obama Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) has already been scuppered and the proposed Trans Atlantic trade deal has fallen from grace. An era of inward looking trade nationalism is on the cards in America.
Donald Trump sees the rise of China as the world's second largest economy due to American largesse and neglect of American interests in global trading arrangements. He would like to reverse this trend. Whether reversing the trend would entail American policies that confront China, contain China or adjust to China is the million dollar question. Under Obama the American pivot to the east was a policy of confrontation with China. However, the heart of the strategy centered around TPP, having scrapped the treaty, Trump will be unable to build or fund the coalition for confronting China. In addition, China is now too powerful an economy to be containable and adjusting to China will be the only viable option for Trumps America.
However, the transition to adjusting to the rise of China can generate a long drawn out period of global turmoil, economic and political instability lasting decades. During this period American and Indian policies in Afghanistan could become highly destabilising for Pakistan. While US has not announced any opposition to the CPEC, India has publically vowed to sabotage the project leading to rising tension in the sub-continent. Trump's cavalier attitude towards trade, tariffs and use of sanctions to get his way with weaker states can create difficulties for Pakistan. On the other hand dealing with Islamic State and bringing peace in Afghanistan may be the common ground between China, Pakistan and the US.
Is Pakistan prepared for the gathering storm? The Trump policies can negatively impinge on Pakistan's national security through its economy. Generally speaking, national security of any country is only as secure as the economy underpinning it. While Pakistan's nuclear programme ultimately underwrites Pakistan's external security, it is the internal security that is victim of fourth generation warfare that is the most challenging aspect of national security. There are at least five dimensions with regard to the role of economic strength in any nation's national security calculus.
1. Countries with larger globally competitive economies have larger resources available for national security without impinging on the welfare of the people.
2. A strong technologically sophisticated economy provides greater self-reliance in the production of armaments, equipment and materials for national security.
3. Economic development and growth are essential for creating employment opportunities for youth and reconstruction and development of backward areas of a country racked by terrorism and law and order issues.
4. A strong economy can be an attractive foreign policy multiplier by offering opportunities and benefits for other countries to participate in.
5. A weak economy can leave national security vulnerable to foreign pressures through sanctions or interruption of access to global capital.
Unfortunately, Pakistan's economic situation is not conducive to enhancing Pakistan's national security. First, its recent excessive reliance on debt is leaving it vulnerable to foreign pressures. Second, the retarded rate of growth of the economy since 2008 has left Pakistan way behind India and China and the future is not very bright, if current trends continue then by 2050 India's economy would be 40 times larger than Pakistan's. Third, competitiveness of Pakistan's economy in the global arena is extremely weak and needs major economic reforms to correct the situation. Without governance reforms and improving business climate in the country, investment and growth will not be possible. Fourth, the human resources of Pakistan have been devastated through utter neglect; Pakistan's Human Development index ranking is 147th, amongst the very lowest. Fifth, Pakistan's governance is riddled with corruption that distorts economic decision-making in the country.
It is clear that the economic progress is holding back the country in its quest of impregnable national security. To meet the emergent challenges, Pakistan needs to have a comprehensive National Economic Plan (NEP) centered around CPEC in conjunction with the National Action Plan (NAP) as the twin pillars of national security. Pakistan's traditional mode of economic management needs to be revamped on a war footing. To fully exploit the potential of the CPEC we not only need to implement the infrastructural projects of CPEC with utmost efficiency and transparency but would also need to make the most cost effective energy choices so that Pakistan's competitiveness is not hampered by high cost energy from CPEC coal projects. Handled properly CPEC can be marketed world-wide for attracting global investment and turning it into a truly international economic corridor.
To truly insulate Pakistan from the ensuing global turmoil, the NEP should also focus on creating a China-Pakistan Economic Integration (CPEI) project as an important priority. The CPEI should create the frameworks and protocols for Pakistan's economy's seamless integration with the great Chinese economy on the pattern of the economic integration between Turkey and the EU, Mexico and the US, and Canada with the US. Future economic growth in Pakistan would depend on Pakistani businesses getting seamless entry into the huge domestic economy of China along with seamless access to its financial and technology markets. The development of special economic zones and Pakistan-China joint ventures between Pakistani and Chinese corporate sector would be central to the emerging economic partnership.
Rejuvenating the NAP and fully implementing it side by side with formulating and implementing the NEP along with its implementing mechanisms would be critical for underpinning the National Security going forward in a turbulent New World Order. Given our past history of bungled, haphazard and half-hearted implementation of national plans locking up the Malacca Cane in GHQ may be premature.
(The writer is a former Finance Minister)
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