South Korea exports seen rising for 5th month, spat with China not a worry

South Korean exports were expected to rise in March for a fifth straight month in annual terms although slightly slower than they did in February, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday, lending more evidence that global economic growth is recovering.
The median forecast of the 15 analysts polled was a 13.0 percent gain on-year, following a 20.2 percent jump in February, which was the fastest in five years and a beacon of hope for an economy battling soft consumption.
"The recovery trend in exports will be maintained for the time being as we've seen volume and product prices both rise globally after entering the new year," said Lee Sang-jae, chief economist at Eugene Investment & Securities.
Lee said recent actions taken by China against South Korean businesses in retaliation over the deployment of a US anti-missile radar system in South Korea would have a limited, if any, impact on export figures.
"Spending by Chinese tourists isn't included in export numbers. I doubt it had much of an impact," the economist said.
The number of Chinese tourists to South Korea has fallen substantially since China began publicly opposing the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system, although Beijing says
it has done nothing officially to curb South Korean businesses.
China insists the weapon's powerful radar can penetrate its territory, while South Korea and the United States have repeatedly assured China the system is only intended to deter North Korean provocations.
The same poll showed imports were expected to have soared 23.7 percent in March from a year earlier, nearly level with a 23.9 percent jump in February.
Separately, the Reuters poll projected February industrial output likely showed no growth, worse than a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent growth seen in January, due to base effects.
Factory output data tends to be volatile but is broadly expected to improve if exports continue rising.
The poll also forecast annual inflation in March at 2.0 percent, accelerating slightly from 1.9 percent in February as producer prices continued to rise in line with improving exports. Producer prices in February recorded the fastest growth in over five years.
Factory output data will be published on March 31 while the trade data is due on April 1. Inflation data will be published on April 4.