US natural gas futures on Tuesday fell to their lowest level in almost five weeks on forecasts for mild, near-normal weather and low demand expected to keep storage high through mid May On its second to last day as the front month, gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $3.043 per million British thermal units, its lowest close since March 22.
That put the contract down for a fourth day in a row, its longest losing streak since January. US and European weather models projected near-normal temperatures over the next two weeks would keep gas usage below 70 billion cubic feet per day, near its lowest since October.
For the week ended April 21, analysts said utilities likely injected 67 billion cubic feet into storage. That compared with an increase of 64 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average build of 57 bcf and would keep inventories about 15 percent above-normal for this time of year.
Despite recent declines, the front-month remained up about 21 percent from an eight-month low of $2.522 in February on the possibility prices could spike later this year if low production and rising exports leave inventories unusually low before next winter.
Over the past 30 days, US production averaged just 70.1 billion cubic feet per day, down from 72.3 bcfd a year earlier and 73.6 bcfd in 2015. Weak prices over the past two years have led to reduced drilling activity, bringing output to its lowest since it was 67.7 bcfd in 2014, according to Reuters data.
US exports were expected to reach 7.9 bcfd this week, up more than 40 percent from a year earlier, according to Reuters data.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures, though cooler than the oppressive heat of last year, would remain mostly above-normal through the summer, leading to expectations that excess stockpiles will decline more rapidly than usual as power generators burn more gas to meet higher air-conditioning demand.
Analysts forecast utilities will add just 1.7 trillion cubic feet to storage during the April-October injection season, much less than the five-year average of 2.1 tcf.
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