Searing heat in the past month has led Strategie Grains analysts to make further cuts to their forecasts for European Union wheat, barley and maize production this year. In a monthly report, the consultancy projected the 2017 EU soft wheat crop at 140.7 million tonnes, down almost 1 million tonnes from its previous estimate and now only 3 percent above last year's low level after the worst French harvest in three decades.
The downward revision was mainly because of lower projected yields in Spain and France as Strategie Grains factored in the impact of extreme heat on crops during the grain-filling phase. However, while it cut its French harvest outlook by almost 1 million tonnes compared with the June report, its new figure of 36.3 million tonnes was above a provisional estimate of 35.6 million made immediately after the mid-June heatwave. Strategie Grains said that a crop tour it conducted in France at the end of June showed that yield losses were less severe than could have been feared given the intense heatwave, partly because crop growth was more advanced than normal.
At the same time, the consultancy raised its production forecasts for Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria - all large wheat producers - because of improved yield prospects. Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for this year's EU barley crop by 0.5 million tonnes to 57.5 million tonnes, 4 percent below the 2016 level. As with wheat, it pointed to contrasting crop conditions across the EU, with Spanish production notably suffering from heat while satisfactory yields were reported in eastern EU countries.
Comments
Comments are closed.