Ukraine seen set for bumper grain harvest, exports

UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2017/18 grain exports by 3.4 percent to 42.06 million tonnes on Tuesday underpinned by higher-than-expected harvest. The consultancy raised its grain harvest estimate to 63.2 million tonnes from 61.7 million a month ago citing a higher grain yield and larger harvested area, it said in a statement.
Ukraine's wheat harvest is seen at 26 million tonnes versus 26.1 million a year ago, it said. A month ago, the consultancy had expected a wheat harvest of 25 million tonnes. "The wheat harvest outcomes were also greater than expected by the market. Although wheat plantings were somewhat reduced in favour of oilseeds, a larger area of wheat survived the winter than last year," the consultancy said.
UkrAgroConsult said the 2017 barley crop could total 8.5 million tonnes versus 8 million tonnes expected a month ago and 9.45 million tonnes threshed last year. The Agricultural Ministry said Ukraine could harvest up to 63 million tonnes of grain this year versus a record 66 million tonnes in 2016. Analysts saw last year's output at 64.2 million tonnes.
UkrAgroConsult did not provide a forecast for this year's maize crop, which totalled 28 million tonnes last year. Ukrainian grain traders' union UZA said the maize harvest could total 26 to 27 million tonnes and 20 to 21 million tonnes could be exported.
UZA President Mykola Gorbachev said that Ukraine's 2017/18 wheat exportable surplus to amount to 16-17 million tonnes and the country could also export about 5 million tonnes of barley. "We harvested 26.6 million tonnes of wheat and it will be enough for local consumption and for exports. Our domestic consumption is around 5 million tonnes and we are able to export 16 to 17 million tonnes," he told a briefing.
Gorbachev added that the share of milling wheat accounted for around 60 percent. Weather forecasters last week said hot and dry weather in Ukraine's eastern and southern regions in August may reduce maize harvest by 10-15 percent and could hamper winter grain sowing.