Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) may succeed in getting the numbers required to elect the Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly from within its own ranks though it may not succeed in achieving its objective of having a meaningful input in appointing the Chairman, National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and the caretaker government in the centre.
The PTI (with 32 MNAs) would require support from MQM-P (with 24 MNAs), Jamat-e-Islami (4 MNAs), PML-Q (2 MNAs), Shaikh Rashid, and independents (3 including Jamshed Dasti, Amir Dogar and Muhammad Zain Elahi) giving a total of 66 MNAs that would enable it to make a bid for the position of leader of the Opposition.
The incumbent opposition leader Khursheed Shah is supported by 47 PPP MNAs, two Awami National Party MNAs and eight others, bringing his total strength in the assembly to 57.
According to the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the National Assembly, the majority MNAs of opposition would sign a notice and submit it to the Speaker seeking removal of the incumbent opposition leader for losing confidence of the majority in the House. Or in other words if 58 opposition members sign a notice then the Speaker would declare the PTI nominee as the leader of the opposition.
The NA Speaker is bound to proceed ahead to confirm the majority backed nominee of the opposition through verification of the MPs signatures. Once confirmed, the Speaker will immediately declare the new Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly.
The opposition leader will not however be in a position to veto the appointment of chairman NAB, with the incumbent retiring on 10 October 2017, or the caretaker prime minister.
Under National Accountability Ordinance 1999, the president appoints chairman NAB in consultation with the prime minister and the opposition leader for a non-extendable period of four years.
If both the premier and the opposition leader fail to bring a consensus candidate for the slot, which is likely if the PTI wins the slot of the Opposition leader, then the president can appoint the chairman on the recommendation of the prime minister.
As per Article 224 of the Constitution, the caretaker premier shall be appointed by the president in consultation with the prime minister and the opposition leader. If the prime minister and the opposition leader do not agree on any person to be appointed as the interim premier within three days of the dissolution of the National Assembly, they shall forward two nominees each to a committee to be immediately formed by the Speaker, comprising eight members of the outgoing National Assembly, or the Senate, or both, having equal representation from the treasury and the opposition.
The opposition would no doubt also consist of the PPP which, with a history of deal making with PML-N, is more likely to strike a deal rather than the PTI and may favour the PML-N in this instance.
The committee shall finalize the name of the caretaker prime minister within three days of the referral of the matter to it. In case of its inability to decide the matter within this period, the names of the nominees shall be referred to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) for final decision within two days. The ECP's independence has been challenged by the PTI Chairman repeatedly in the past.
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