Raw sugar stumbles after data halts short-covering rally

Raw sugar futures on ICE fell more than 2 percent on Monday, falling from the prior session's 5-1/2-month high after data showed speculators cut their bearish position more than expected, reducing prospects for more short-covering. March raw sugar settled down 0.39 cent, or 2.5 percent, at 14.98 cents per lb, below Friday's 5-1/2 month high at 15.46 cents on Friday.
Speculators sharply cut their net short position in raw sugar futures and options in the week to Nov. 14, taking it to a five-month low, US government data showed late Friday. "The risk of a short-covering rally is not there anymore so the market is falling," said Carlos Mera, senior commodities analyst at Rabobank.
Marex said in a weekly update two factors could now prompt the funds to take long positions - adverse crop weather and rising energy prices. "But the probability of this happening has diminished slightly ... because of the improved weather in Center-South Brazil and indications that the shine may have gone off the rally in crude oil," the broker added. Dealers said the upside was also capped by the prospect of a global surplus in 2017/18 and potentially 2018/19.
March white sugar settled down $5, or 1.3 percent, at $388.80 per tonne. March New York cocoa settled down $42, or 2 percent, at $2,089 per tonne, after falling to a two-week low at $2,081. This also marked a 6.5 percent drop from the 10-month high reached on Nov. 10.
Data released late Friday showed speculators switched to a net long position, revealing that their short-covering rally was over, traders said. March London cocoa settled down 33 pounds, or 2.1 percent, at 1,574 pounds per tonne. "Some talk of disease in crops in Ivory Coast has created much of the recent buying interest, but no news has been heard to confirm the talk so the fundamental supply side issue faded," said Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group in Chicago.
January robusta coffee settled down $14, or 0.8 percent, at $1,810 per tonne. March arabica coffee settled down 1.5 cent, or 1.2 percent, at $1.2575 per lb. The market shrugged off a US attache forecast for Brazil to harvest and export less coffee than expected in 2017/18 after arabica production in the world's biggest producer fell and shipping issues reduced exports.