A key factor oft ignored these days while discussing smog is Pakistan’s increasing reliance on coal-powered generation. The world is moving away from coal, while in Pakistan, more than 50 percent of power plants under CPEC are coal-based. Coal-fired power plants have been the highlight of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) energy investments with Thar being the flagship project. Not only is the environment all set to become sootier with the country’s power sector on a coal binge, the intensive use of water – an already scarce resource – in coal mining and burning will put further pressure on the environment. It is time that the policy makers take heed of the situation and take some actions to counter the impact that coal is likely to have on the environment.
A recent report by Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) talks about how Pakistan could build greater and sustainable energy security by increasing the use of cheaper renewables. The crux of the report is that it would be cheaper to invest in renewables as the price of solar and wind is dropping, making coal uncompetitive. While the local authorities have been justifying the use of coal to help cut expensive imports, save foreign exchange, along with a reliable source of energy, the report sets the ground for renewables; IEEFA’s proposes an energy model to 2030 for Pakistan with 30:30:30:10 ratios for renewables, thermal, hydro, and nuclear power, respectively, which would provide cheaper diversified power, more cost-effective electricity system, and thus will provide greater energy security.
The model proposed by IEEFA states: “…we have Pakistan installing 1 GW of solar and 1 GW of wind power per year out to 2030. Importantly, this is an average over the 12 years. The build out can start at a smaller level, perhaps several hundred megawatts a year, which can then be ramped up as wind and solar get even cheaper, installation capability improves, and costs fall even further. This level of per annum installation is highly achievable with many nations already building out renewables at a similar scale… In our model, Pakistan reaches almost 27 GW of renewable energy by 2029-30 which represents 36 percent of total capacity, while supplying around 28 percent of the nation’s electricity.”
However, can renewables ever become the base load? While this seems impossible because of the seasonality and variability in production, IEEFA proposes that this can be overcome partly through the construction of hybrid wind and solar installations to smooth out the variability of power generation.
Nonetheless, there is a need to increase focus on renewables. One positive step has been the decision to move towards competitive bidding for renewable energy projects. Some requirements that the report puts forward include grid enhancements to allow the electricity system to handle increased variability of generation, which is something that has not been worked upon during the recent years where generation capacities on coal and LNG have been enhanced.
It also advises coordination between the central and provincial governments where the overall central government policy should allow for provincial renewable energy plans to flourish. Other enablers mentioned by IEEFA deal with the creation of an integrated long-term renewable energy plan, the creation of renewable energy zones, and encouraging distributed power.
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