The newly created Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), perceived to be backed by the establishment, is expected to clinch majority seats out of a total of 16 National Assembly seats from the province. Interviews with different political analysts, politicians, and locals revealed that dissidents from Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) are the hot favourites to win from Balochistan in elections to be held tomorrow.
The religious parties had won 7 of the 14 National Assembly seats in 2013 general elections but are unlikely to get more than 4 to 5 seats even after forming the MMA.
BAP has formed no alliances yet though it is responsible for forging an alliance with both Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in the March 2018 Senate elections which led to the election of Sadiq Sanjarani as chairman Senate.
It is considered a distinct possibility for the Senate-formula to apply after the elections with BAP candidates deciding which party to support in the centre after consultations with stakeholders. According to a survey conducted by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), the province appears to be divided in terms of party support with no single party having a clear lead: PPP, PTI and PML-N enjoy between 11 percent and 15 percent support and MMA is behind at 8 percent. Support for BAP is projected at 55 percent.
Regional parties notably Balochistan National Party (BNP) and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) enjoy the support of 6 percent and 4 percent respectively.
An official of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said that on Monday, at least 22 Baloch candidates announced the withdrawal of their candidacy for the national and provincial assemblies' seats - 5 from the national assembly and 17 from the provincial assembly seats following electoral alliance and seat adjustments.
After these withdrawals, a total of 287 candidates remain in the fray for 16 National Assembly seats in Balochistan and 952 candidates will contest for 51 seats of the provincial assembly.
Abdul Bari Mandokhel, a local journalist from Balochistan, said that PML-N and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Nazaryati (JUI-N) have formed an alliance, which may help the latter win NA-268.
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) chairman Mehmood Khan Achakzai is expected to win NA-265 (Quetta) as he enjoys considerable support compared to other candidates belonging to other parties, Mandokhel added.
Sardar Atif Sanjrani of PTI, Muhammad Umar Khilji and Maulana Asmatullah of JUI-F are contesting from NA-264 (Quetta), but JUI-F candidate is expected to be ahead in the race.
Mir Kamal Khan Alyani is expected to win NA-272 (Gwadar Lasbela). Jam Muhammad Dashti, a former bureaucrat who is contesting from NA-271 (Turbat) as an independent is projected to win as he enjoys considerable support. The ethno-nationalist vote bank will be divided between Akhtar Mengal's Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M), BNP-Awami, Hazara Democratic Party (HDP), National Party (NP), Pukhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and Awami National Party (ANP) Mandokhel stated adding that the bulk of the religious vote bank will go to the recently revived Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of five religious political parties led by JUI-F.
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