The July 25 vote

Vote is the ultimate voice of the people. Choice of whom you prefer to represent you is the voice that counts. The count of that voice determines the future leadership of that country. On 25th July, the people of Pakistan spoke. They spoke in numbers; they spoke in provinces; they spoke in candidates; they spoke in ideology. All contesting parties got votes, some more than others. Those who got less also spoke and are still speaking on the manipulation of the election. Their concerns need to be addressed at all levels. The Indian and the western media spoke, in fact yelled, at the results of the election. These elections were under fire from many quarters, i.e., the diaspora, the international media, the local analysts, the party in government, the parties in minority, the losing candidates. There were fears on its transparency, there were fears on its delay, there were fears on its safe execution, there were concerns about law and order during the elections. Fortunately, by and large, these were unfounded.
According to reports of FAFEN and the independent monitoring commissions from Europe and India etc, there were irregularities but the elections were largely peaceful and more organized than those in 2103. As quoted by India Today, former Chief Election Commissioner India Dr Quraishi was part of the independent monitoring commission of Commonwealth to oversee the elections in Pakistan. He mentioned that FAFEN (Free and Fair Election Network), an independent body of 15000 citizens posted on 50% polling stations reported no rigging. Dr Quraishi said he personally observed that on the election day there was no interference from army. He said that when we asked the opposition parties about their complaints of pre-poll rigging they complained that leaders were brought over to change loyalties which happened in India too and was a political norm. He said there was no instance of stuffing boxes as authenticated by FAFEN. However the breakdown of the result management system was a serious flaw and a thorough enquiry should be done and culprits made accountable.
The results of these elections make an interesting study. As predicted, the elections created new trends that need to be analyzed and learned from for all political parties. In a world where billions are glued to a video showing a particular behavior or news of an individual within seconds the formation of opinions is almost instant. As was visible in the Brexit and the US elections even the most sophisticated polls and research could not keep up with the changing preferences of the voters. In Pakistan, the polls were showing the changing trends but could not predict the extent and versatility of the change. Let us see some interesting facts that have contradicted many predictions.
1. High turnout despite fears: Fears were expressed before the elections of an expected low voter turnout. The reasons given were the rainy season in the last week of July where intermittent floods and rain water could discourage voters from coming out to vote. Another reason was the holiday season where people will be away from their homes or going for Hajj pilgrimage. The pre-poll bomb blasts were another deterrent for voting. However, voter turnout was 51% with Punjab registering the highest turnout of 59%.
2. Women Spoke: The silent and subdued majority of women came out in places where none could imagine. Three areas made history as women spoke with their choices. Khushab where women are almost considered non-voters for the first time came out in big numbers to vote. Upper Dir which had remained beset with the taboo of no women can vote saw thousands of women lined outside polling booths in a first of its kind. Thar, one of the most backward areas in Sindh, stunned the world with the highest female voter turnout in two of its constituencies.72.83 percent women showed up for vote in NA-221 while 71.40 women opted to vote in NA-222.
3. Fall of Big Names: Perhaps the most significant factor was the knockout punches delivered by the lesser known candidates to the big boys in the political ring. All parties felt the tremors of this trend. For MMA the loss of its top leaders was historic. Maulana Fazlur Rehman lost both of his strongholds in NA 38 and NA 39 to relatively younger and less established candidates. Shahbaz Sharif lost 3 out of 4 seats in DG khan, Karachi and Swat. Bilawal Bhutto won only one of the three seats losing in not only Malakand but in his stronghold of Lyari to a complete newcomer of PTI Abdul Shakoor. Sirajul Haq lost from Lower Dir. Other notables to lose were Asfandyar Wali, Aleem Khan, Abid Sher Ali, Ghulam Ahmad Bilour, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Mahmood Khan Achakzai.
4. Gender makes its presence: The fact that the ECP stipulates that 5% of the National Assembly seats have to be given to women made this one of the highest female candidate population. 464 women contested and though very few won but there were some great stories to tell. While some big names like Dr Nafisa Shah, Shazia Marri and Fehmida Mirza won their traditional seats, Zartaj Gul of PTI defeated Awais Laghari in DG Khan and Ghulam Bibi Bharwana of PTI defeated the Jhangvi candidate Ahmad Ludhyanwi in Jhang. This is folklore stuff that will go down in history.
The election system and the Election Commission all needs to be reformed, strengthened and empowered to address issues of capacity and irregularities. What needs even a bigger reform is the way the political parties and candidates fight their election. The traditional way of being assured of family seats with biradari networks is no longer going to be enough. This election proved that if the only time the candidates visit their constituencies is when they need their votes, they will be rejected. What the parties and politicians need to realize is that the increasing ratio of the young, aware and angry voter cannot be suppressed, and that, with the help of the digital revolution he and she will stand up, speak up and be counted in this game of simple majority.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])