Brazilian farmers poised to plant record soya area in 2018-19

Brazilian farmers were forecast to expand the country's soyabean planted area for the 12th consecutive year amid strong demand from Asia and in spite of risks related to the exchange rate and higher freight costs, according to a Reuters poll of analysts on Tuesday. Brazil is likely to expand the area to a record 36.28 million hectares (89.65 million acres) this season, which farmers will start planting around September, a 3.2 percent expansion from the previous cycle based on government data.
Over the past 12 years the soya area grew on average about 5 percent annually, with the fastest rate or growth taking place in the 2012/2013 crop year at 10.7 percent.
"Among factors driving the growth of area, there's the effect of the trade war between the United States and China, which has supported Brazilian soyabean prices in export markets," said Victor Ikeda, a Rabobank analyst.
The trade tensions led Brazil soyabean port premiums to rise as much as $2 per bushel, at the same time an appreciation of the US dollar against the local currency has offset the drop in soyabean prices at the Chicago Board of Trade, which fell by around 7 percent in 2018.
Yet if on the one hand the strong dollar helps farmers in export markets, it impacts the cost of farm inputs which are quoted in foreign currency.
"The devaluation of the (Brazilian) real will boost production costs by an average of 10 percent in the next season driven mainly by higher fertilizer and agrochemical costs," said Coleres, a consultancy.
Coleres forecasts average soyabean return of 1,191 reais ($304.43) per hectare in 2018/2019.
"Though farmer margins are lower than in 2017/2018, they continue to be high and will encourage area expansion," the consultancy said.
Brazil, the world's largest soyabean exporter, is expected to collect an estimated 119.76 million tonnes of the oilseeds in the coming season, up 0.65 percent from previous cycle.
Planting will begin around September, the month prior to the Brazilian general election, which analysts expect may fuel forex volatility. That, together with higher freight costs, has hampered futures soyabean sales.
"Over the past few weeks, the sale of new crop soyabeans has lagged due in part to uncertainties related to freight costs in 2019," said Steve Cachia, a consultant at CerealPar.