Atif Mian, the deposed member of the Economic Advisory Council, won't let us forget him. He keeps twittering his views on a range of subjects that have a topical interest for us, from industrial policy to issues of growth and inequality to incompetence.
He has now set the incompetence pigeon among the anti-corruption cats. He put out a poll and then chose to side with the minority view, arguing that "incompetence is the bigger constraint on development than corruption". His answer to the key question (how effectively the system delegates power to the most competent) is "even a corrupt system can deliver if it finds a way to delegate to the competent".
We doubt if Mian had Pakistan in mind when he did his poll, but his finding has arrived at a moment when the corruption-incompetence debate is intensifying in Pakistan. Everyone is for government's resolve to root out corruption, but ambivalence seems to be on the ascendency as perceptions of lacklustre performance grow.
Of course, both incompetence and corruption are undesirable. The debate is about which of the two is the lesser evil: results despite corruption or inadequate performance by an untainted government?
It is too early to indict the government for wayward performance. Despite the early warning signals the government may yet snap out of its yo-yo style of governance and start putting runs on the board.
At this stage what merits examination is if the government has put in place structures and systems that will secure reasonable performance. Does it have the right people, and if they are the right fit do they have sufficient operational autonomy? Does the government have a clear vision that is in sync with available resources, and have the goals been well-sequenced?
By and large, the cabinet consists of people of good repute. Where sufficient expertise was found wanting recourse has been made to Advisors, who again enjoy a good reputation - and it doesn't matter to us which previous government they have been associated with.
Problem is the mismatch between what the job requires and what the incumbent has to offer. Chief Minister Punjab is not the only odd one out. Zubaida Jalal for Defence Production, Khalid Maqbool for IT&T, Faisal Vawda for Water, Ijaz Shah for Parliamentary Affairs? Their backgrounds suggest they could be better utilised elsewhere; and the able Shafqat Mahmood is being wasted on a non-job.
Right man for the job confusion is worse confounded by too many people doing the same job. Media is an easy example: in addition to the all-over-the-place Minister for Information we have two special assistants entrusted with media affairs - and, yet, if there is one irrefutable failing of the government it is its communication policy.
Then there are the scores stabled in the PM Secretariat who whip out a card carrying the Government of Pakistan crest and their designation (Chairman of Committee on......) before you can say hello. And we have lost count of all the task forces and advisory bodies.
Performance is also jeopardized by highly centralised decision-making and questionable quality of professional support to the Ministers.
Choose the right man for the job and then let him get on with it is Management 101. We see little evidence of effective delegation of authority in this regime. At least two provinces are run from Islamabad, and there is no Minister who can say he takes the decisions that matter.
The allegation of bureaucracy not 'co-operating' is a lot of hogwash; as is the perception that careers were built on 'loyalty'. It is just that the senior civil service is not what it once was.
Years of neglect of grooming the civil service for senior positions has come to hound us now. Whether it is the Secretary of Finance or Commerce or Industries there is so little to choose from. Bereft of requisite background and knowledge they can at best be expected to keep things going, not weigh-in with policy choices or implementation strategies.
Prime Minister may consider U-turns a sign of genius but what are investors to make of all the policy reversals? Recall, for instance, the policy shifts in auto, energy, pharma, and petroleum sectors. Does the government announce first and think later? Does it not know what policy uncertainty does to Business decisions?
Such announced decisions as issuance of bonds for the stuck up refunds are yet to be acted upon. Textile exporters do not know how to price when the textile policy is about to expire with no certainty of concessions continuing. What about labour costs? Should they assume a minimum wage of 16,500 or the talked about basic income that might take it up to 21,000?
People and policy weaknesses are accentuated by inherent contradictions of the PTI vision. Inspirations drawn from Medina, Scandinavia, and China make for a potent cocktail, and of course all great achievements begin with a dream. But that glint in the eye can turn delusional absent the reality check.
A billion trees, ten million jobs, five million housing units, Ehsaas, the health cards, are all music to our ears but how real is the programme? It's a rude awakening when the music gives way to sermons from ministers on the precarity of our finances and the hardships ahead.
The loot and plunder of the previous rulers resonates with us. The economic mess the government inherited strikes a sympathetic chord. But playing the same record over and over again is becoming tiresome and increasingly seen as a cover-up for non-performance.
In our own self-interest we want this government to succeed. The government can help us and itself by getting real. It should come up with a minimum agenda for the rest of the term: a dated action plan that is within its competence level and what it can fund - we know the resource constraint is not going away anytime soon.
PM and his team have to build, and market, a new narrative. They need to tone things down and start building bridges, in the parliament and outside.
There is a vicarious pleasure in seeing people in high places tumble, including the business elite, but it comes with a high price tag. Government should avoid it. It is time for a new beginning.
Above all, don't let incompetence make us vote for corruption!
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