Suspension of Afghan peace talks

Who should sit on the other side of the negotiating table at Doha, the Taliban say it's for them to choose - an aversion that has led to suspension of much-awaited intra-Afghan dialogue hosted by Qatar. An earlier end to the generations-old Afghan war is what everybody wants, all the more now as yet another spell of so-called spring offensive is launched by the Taliban. Given that sanguine backdrop, the intra-Afghan dialogue scheduled to be held at Doha this past Friday was expected to be a game changer. The UN Security Council, which met early this week and condemned the Taliban's spring offensive, had too called upon all parties to the Afghan conflict to "seize the opportunity to begin an inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations that result in a political settlement". So far the only time the Taliban sat with the representatives of the Kabul government was years back when both sides met at Murree - in response to a call by Pakistan. The upcoming Doha conclave was to be one such occasion they were to be on the same negotiating table; but they were not. The 250-strong team constituted by the Kabul government was too large a group for serious talks, the Taliban said. "The creators of Kabul list must realize that this is an orderly and prearranged conference in a far-away Khaleeji country and not an invitation to some wedding or other party at a hotel in Kabul," remarked Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid. While the Taliban believe they are in talks with wider Afghan society, which they do want to win over on their side, they don't want to be seen meeting President Ashraf Ghani-led government representatives. They say he is a US stooge and his government a puppet regime, and as long he is there the foreign troops would stay put in their country. But then the Taliban are also mindful of the ground reality that as long as they persevere in their role as insurgents the foreign troops would not leave their country. So, peace in Afghanistan is not around the corner; it would take time, sincerity of purpose and willingness on all sides within the country and outside to come on the same page. The question whether the list of representatives prepared by Kabul an honest move leading to peace in Afghanistan needs to be answered by the Ashraf Ghani government clearly and unambiguously. The regime in Kabul says the administration officers in its list would attend the conference in a "personal capacity". And then on that list is also President Ghani's running mate and former intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh! In fact the Kabul list is not acceptable even to the host, the Qatar's Centre for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies. The list of Afghans the Centre wanted to join the peace parlays is of 243, as against Kabul's 250, and includes some personalities who are not acceptable to President Ashraf Ghani. "This is unfortunately necessary to further build consensus as to who should participate in the conference," tweeted the Qatari think tank.
Even if there is an agreed list of participants to the next round of intra-Afghan dialogue, the greater cause of lasting peace in Afghanistan remains a distant goal - essentially because all three to the peace process - the Taliban, the Kabul government and the United States - have their own agendas. Unless they cut down on their agendas in line with ground realities there is not much in hand to help bring about negotiated peace in Afghanistan. The Taliban must accept that the innocent people that are killed in their bomb blasts and suicide attacks are none but Afghans. Of course they have captured almost half of Afghanistan, but at what cost? The Kabul rulers must accept the reality that they are there in power only as long as they are protected by the Americans. But for how long? They must not lose sight of the fact that President Trump wants his boys out of Afghanistan as soon as possible. And, the Americans would be doing the right thing by declaring their withdrawal schedule, and thus weaken the Taliban stand on unacceptable presence of foreign troops in their country. But, even if all of it comes about -Taliban accept demand for ceasefire, Kabul agrees to stay back and want the larger Afghan society to take its place and Americans announce troop withdrawal timeline - there is no guarantee that the power vacuum thus created would not suck in extremist outfits like the Islamic State, as was the case in Syria and Iraq. That calls for an out-of-box approach with the UN Security Council taking the lead.