Grappling with the Gulf crisis

On a recent visit to Pakistan amid high tensions with the US to hold consultations with top civil and military leadership, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif heard what he wanted to hear. His Pakistani counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi said tensions in the region were not in anyone's interest and that disputes should always be resolved within the framework of international law and through dialogue and diplomatic means. Zarif described his discussions as "useful" and "constructive", also telling an interviewer "Pakistan understands our position... and considers US pressure on Iran as unjustified." In fact, the EU nations as well as many opinion leaders inside the US share that concern. But things were not so straightforward for Pakistan considering that US' regional allies, including some of this country's close friends, have been cheering on Washington hawks from the sidelines. It is measure of its successful diplomacy that Islamabad has managed to take the right position without harming important relationships.
Although both sides have said they do not want war, the drumbeat towards conflict has not stopped. On Friday, Washington announced sending reinforcements of 1500 troops to the Middle East where it has already deployed an aircraft carrier, fleets of bombers and fighter jets to counter what its Acting Defence Secretary called an "ongoing threat posed by Iranian forces." Common sense suggests that the last thing Iran would want is a direct conflict with the America. What is known is that Trump's hawkish National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have been clamouring for regime change in the Islamic Republic by creating conflict, expecting it would produce internal chaos leading to the regime's downfall. External threats, however, tend to have the opposite effect, arousing nationalistic spirit and making the oppositionists and pro-government people take a united stand. Besides, saner elements in Washington have been warning that Iran's case is very different from Iraq's. Its proxies in the region, particularly Hezbollah, can inflict serious damage on the US interests and those of its regional allies. In fact, outbreak of war can set the entire region ablaze.
Despite the saber-rattling signs are Trump may yet walk away from the standoff. Yet as things stand, any misreading of the other side's intentions or miscalculation can lead to an all-out war. Those interested in trouncing Iran can also make mischief. Just last month, tensions spiked when an oil tanker and three other ships were damaged by explosions on the east coast of the UAE in the Gulf of Oman for which Iran was blamed without any evidence. It can only be hoped better sense will prevail, and whatever the issues of dispute would be resolved at the negotiating table.