Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different outcome. Yet that is exactly what the snapshot of long-term trends in kharif season crop yields seems to suggest; and the current season is expected to turn out no differently.
SBP’s quarterly report on state of the economy notes that area under cultivation of four major crops is estimated to have declined by 10 percent during ongoing kharif season. Among these, the report raises most serious concerns for cotton, which not only missed the targeted growth in area of 9.5 percent, but instead recorded a decline of 11 percent (Read “Kharif freezes cotton out”, published on February 8, 2018 in these columns).
This is not the first-time policy makers pinned their hopes on a cotton turnaround, and neither the last time the crop has acted like the child who is a bitter disappointment. In previous years, farmers’ inclination towards higher margin crops such as sugarcane and rice was cited as the primary reason for declining interest in cotton.
However, for kharif FY19, area under cultivation for both temptations, rice and sugarcane, has declined by 10 and 15 percent respectively, with no gains for cotton. However, it is pertinent to note while area under cultivation for the two crops may see crests and troughs, they have maintained a long-term trend of improving yield, relative to cotton.
To make the point more obvious, consider this: during the last three decades, year-on-year change in yield per hectare for cotton (in kg) has observed a negative trend, with average per annum decline of -0.36 percent (harmonic mean).
In sharp contrast, yield per hectare for all three alternate crops have noted long term improvement in yields during the same period. Average year-on-year improvement in yield for sugarcane and rice is estimated at 1.42 and 1.66 percent, with the most prominent increase in yield for maize 4.27 percent. It is pertinent to note that maize yields saw an inflection point in early 2000s, which is often controversially attributed to introduction of GMOs.
Cotton’s failure this time round has been attributed to lower water availability, with average production estimated at 10.8 million bales, lower than 11 out of 13 past years. Yield is stuck in the 700 – 800 kg per hectare range, after peaking at 815 kg per hectare in FY12.
Even if Pakistan’s cotton yield were to grow at 10 percent per annum, it will take a decade before it catches up to top cotton producing countries such as Australia and Turkey, with average yield above 1,800 kg per hectare; who by that time, may have galloped even further due to better technological inputs.
The world already began moving towards man-made fibre as the alternative to cotton during late 2000s. Is it time Pakistan began to second guess its “comparative advantage” in this purported white gold?
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