Hostility between India and Pakistan is a high stakes gamble with lose-lose payoffs regardless of whoever wins a full-scale war, nuclear or conventional.
Economists have long estimated that the overspending on defence by both countries has historically been equal to the under spending on health and education. As the developed world moves towards the fourth industrial revolution amid other meta-level changes in global society, must the two sides engage in the folly of war. On Pakistan’s side, PM Khan and other political parties are clear that they shouldn’t, but under the leadership of the ‘Butcher of Gujrat’ India thinks otherwise.
Realpolitik is one thing, but millions of poor in India and Pakistan and across South Asia are also a reality that cannot be discounted. There is no reason to play the game of empire of yester centuries; the road to global power in 21st century cannot be paved by fallen soldiers. It needs educated, empowered, highly skilled, globalised citizens.
India may be ahead of the curve compared to the state of human development in Pakistan, but she is still miles away from what where any decent nation would aspire to be in the 21st century. Instead of exchanging missiles, the two sides should exchange ideas over how to put an end to poverty. Mr. Khan has long been convinced that South Asia must learn from each other especially considering common grounds history and similar stages of development in the region, be it politically, economically, technologically or otherwise. Mr. Modi, not so much, who should do his country a favour and read the story of David and Goliath before going to war.
The Indian premier might think that it can quash Pakistan, but with its higher population density, integration with global value chain, and years of efforts towards the prize of global leadership, India is not isolated from serious risks. While a nuclear war can set both countries (and the region) back many, many years, a non-nuclear war is not a garden party either; neither for Pakistan nor for India.
The one party that will stand to lose if Pakistan India go head to head is China. Many regional experts opine that while China cannot afford not to provide support to Pakistan, given her economic interests with India she also will not want to pick a fight with the Indians. China would therefore do well to play a role in stabilising the region. With great visions (OBOR) comes great responsibility. China cannot afford to play on the fence in the case of Pak-India war since it will destabilise the whole region and risks its own visionary plans.
Last year, Chinese envoy in India had proposed a trilateral China-Pakistan-India forum ala the trilateral China-Afghanistan-Pakistan forum. India had then snubbed the proposal. While China should reiterate such proposals, especially China-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India forum, both India and Pakistan would do well to reconsider just how illogical is the failure to separate politics and economics.
When India can ignore border issues with China and instead develop vibrant trade and investment ties, she should be able to separate border politics and economic relationship when it comes to setting up an east-west corridor to supplement the north south corridor passing through Pakistan. India may not come on the table so easily, not least because of its concerns over the CPEC route. But while politics is the art of the possible, for great leaders such as President Xi Jinping – Chinese president for life - politics is the art of making what appears to be impossible, possible.
But while all these aspects of introspection will bear fruit in the long run, if the parties in question chose to act or abstain in the manner so desired, in the short to medium run the Pakistan state needs to worry about fixing two particular problems at home. First, how to address the fiscal deficit in FY19 and onward. Following the recent hostilities, higher defence spending will be the order of the day, which will invariably leave the federal government with little money for other expenditure unless the government is able to substantially increase tax revenues. Since the return on the efforts to increase tax net materialises with a lag, expect short-cut taxation, high budget deficits and higher government borrowing in FY19 and FY20. There may also be further pressure on the provinces to share some federal spending such as the BISP and the HEC.
Second, just how important is the role of a developed, balanced media for any given society has been very well established by the performance of India’s jingoistic media in the past few weeks. In the same vein, though in a different context, Pakistan’s state needs to understand the importance of developing the country’s underdeveloped media for a balanced and deeper coverage of the country’s socio-economic issues. Hyper state of he-said-she-said journalism often filled with hyperboles and screaming match on electronic media shouldn’t be the way forward for Pakistan.
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