Nothing wastes political capital like an economic downturn. It’s not just in the West where consultants warn political incumbents and challengers by invoking the Carville cliché, “It’s the Economy, stupid!” Out here in the developing world, too, a sick or healthy economy can affect political fortunes. Fair to ask, then, how is the Pakistani public reacting to, or will react to, the rising prices and joblessness in their midst?
Absence of protests suggests that the general public is not yet ready to fully chastise the incumbents. It helps that the PTI shot to fame out of the urban middle class’s disillusionment with the power-politics of the two mainstream parties. Folks are growing frustrated, but patience hasn’t run out yet, it seems. As the PTI bandwagon sputters, people may not have yet reached a point where they start debating alternatives.
Presiding over an unprecedented demand compression, Imran Khan curiously sits atop a sweet spot. Somehow he has managed to create daylight between his politics and economics. And his base can see through that slit. The base may feel that economy is being run by technocrats who aren’t answerable to Khan or interested in enacting his (arguably lofty) promises of five million houses and ten million jobs.
Opinion polls should always be taken with a pinch of salt – but a recent opinion poll lends credence to the above reading of the public pulse. Gallup Pakistan – which surveyed adult individuals in 1,480 households across urban and rural Pakistan in the four provinces between April 21 and April 30 – found that while folks are highly dissatisfied with the government’s efforts on reducing inflation, a slight majority still approved of the overall running of the government (see the illustration).
Recall that back in the first year of the PML-N government in 2014, a similar reading was reported by Gallup Pakistan where respondents overall approved of the government but had highly unfavorable view of its inflation management. Now a sizable majority of folks (61%) are missing that PML-N government. The latest poll had 51 percent of respondents agreeing that the PTI’s performance was worse than the PML-N’s – up from 35 percent who said the same in December 2018 and 27 percent in September 2018.
A majority of respondents (56%) felt that economic conditions would deteriorate further. In a sign of patience running thin, 31 percent of respondents were willing to give “no more time” to the government to fulfill promises made, followed by 23 percent who would allow another year and 20 percent who could hang until two more years.
Amid all this, the personal popularity of Imran Khan is intact. His approval rating stood at 58 percent in April, up from 51 percent in December 2018. But the margin of popularity the PM has with his chief rival, Shahbaz Sharif (approval rating of 55%) is rather thin. The PM could increase that lead by taking economic matters in his own hands and leaving corruption to NAB. After all, this latest poll affirms the earlier readings that majority of folks consider inflation and unemployment bigger issues than corruption.
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