Malaysian palm oil futures are forecast to rise to 2,200 ringgit ($534) a tonne by September as crop production rests in between high cycles, according to forecasts by analyst Dorab Mistry, before falling to 2,000 ringgit as stocks rise.
"I believe the current rally in palm prices has some more room and ... can go to 2,200 ringgit by September. That would take refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein to $550-$560," Mistry said in a conference presentation.
"Post September we must watch the recovery in production ... As stocks rise, palm prices can retrace back to 2,000 ringgit," he said, basing his estimates on Brent crude oil prices trading between $60 and $80 a barrel.
Benchmark palm oil prices have shed nearly 3% so far this year to hit a near four-year low at 1,916 ringgit earlier this month. Prices have since pushed higher and closed on Monday at 2,061 ringgit.
Mistry, who is also the director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, revised up forecasts for Southeast Asian palm oil output ahead of the September production season.
According to a presentation for an industry conference in Mumbai that was seen by Reuters, Mistry pegged Malaysian output at 20.3 million tonnes this year and Indonesian production at 45 million tonnes.
This is up from an earlier outlook in April, when he forecast Malaysia's 2019 output at 20 million tonnes and Indonesia's at 44 million tonnes.
"From about July-August 2018, in Malaysia we had a high cycle for palm production. This high cycle came to an end around March 2019. After that the trees will require a period of rest of about six months," said Mistry.
"In Malaysia we shall see a recovery in production only from September."
Growth in global production this year is also expected to rise "by at least 3.5 million tonnes" he added, versus an earlier estimate of 3 million tonnes.
Mistry also expected Indian edible oil imports for the 2018/19 marketing year beginning Nov. 1 to rise to 15.3 million tonnes. This is up from last year's 15 million tonnes, but slightly down from his previous forecast of 15.5 million tonnes.
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