Under PM Khan, Pakistan’s eagerness to restore normal relations with India is out in the open. But so far the overtures remain unrequited as PM Modi is rather fond of ghosting. That may change after PM Khan’s US visit. President Trump has placed himself right in the middle of the decades-long conflict in Kashmir – “such a beautiful part of the world”. But there he was, sitting beside a beaming Khan, eager to “do anything to help” to sort this mess and get the blessings of a billion wretched folks.
The question many people have on their mind is whether Modi sarkar will now find it harder to elude and evade Khan’s message of peace and harmony. Some observers have pointed out that while Pakistan is jubilant over Trump’s mediation offer and the ensuing embarrassment for Modi sarkar at home, it is a non-starter with India, which continues to insist that Kashmir is a bilateral affair, totally closed to third parties.
The fact that Modi didn’t himself contradict Trump shows that New Delhi could not afford to annoy Trump; instead it led the issue slide, hoping that Trump-talk will be forgotten soon. But is it really that easy? The upcoming UN General Assembly session will provide Khan with another opportunity to internationalize Kashmir and talk peace. That will put India yet again on the defensive.
History shows that India has not been averse to international mediation (read US intervention) during times of crisis in Indo-Pak relations. But short of a crisis, India has been adamant that all talks on Kashmir be held bilaterally. Before India went to polls this year, PM Khan had suggested that Modi’s win could be an opportunity to resolve Kashmir. The reciprocity has been missing even after Modi got re-elected.
Until the bad blood dissipates, both sides can claim advantage over the other. Pakistan is well-positioned to get a friendly post-war government in Afghanistan – this will be viewed as a strategic defeat by hawks in India. As for India, it has reason to believe that its policy of exerting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan through multilateral forums like the UNSC and the FATF are working. This kind of international pressure is not palatable as it impacts Pakistan’s sovereignty. So the cycle of revenge continues.
Over in Pakistan, almost everyone seems to be on the same page to resolve issues with India. But restoring talks remains contingent on how quickly the Modi government comes to realize the futility of its policy of disengagement with Pakistan. The pre-election, anti-Pakistan rhetoric had been raised to such a decibel that Indian government will need to take some time off to respond favorably to Pakistan.
Thankfully, the post-Pulwama tensions have gone down to a large extent. Once frequent heated statements are now confined to responding only to ceasefire violations.
There is some progress on the joint Kartarpur Corridor initiative. India’s tennis cup team will soon visit Pakistan for a Davis Cup tie after 55 years. On the other hand, border incidents are flaring up once again. In addition, the uncertain fate of Kashmir’s special status under BJP will push the valley further into chaos. Wiser sense must prevail.
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