Aussie, kiwi in tight ranges

The Australian and New Zealand dollars stayed in tight ranges on Monday with global currency markets in a wait-and-see mode ahead of interest rate decisions by major central banks. Traders also awaited a speech by Australia's central bank Governor Philip Lowe on Tuesday and third-quarter inflation data on Wednesday that could make or break the case for a fourth interest rate cut this year.

The Australian dollar was last off 0.1% at $0.6815. It fell 0.5% last week as bulls bailed on long positions following a fresh bout of Brexit uncertainty. The New Zealand dollar was mostly unchanged at $0.6350 after also slipping 0.5% last week. The dovish outlook is helping keep bond yields low. Three-year bond yields stand at 0.75%, compared with 1.83% at the start of this year.

The three-year bond future dipped 3.5 ticks to 99.260, while the 10-year contract slipped 4.5 ticks to 98.895. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already reduced its cash rate three times this year, to 0.75%, and is thus considered likely to sit steady at its meeting on Nov. 5.

Futures are pricing in a slim 18% chance of a November move while there currently is a 50-50 chance of a December cut. Those odds might shift if inflation data on Oct. 30 for the September quarter proves as soft as many expect. "Trade war risks, weak global data and strong expectations of central bank policy easing continue to dominate the FX outlook," analysts at BankofAmerica-Merrill Lynch wrote in a note.

Investors naturally will be watching for the rate decision by the US Frederal Reserve due on early Oct. 31 Australia time. Markets are pricing in a quarter point cut. Such a move would pile pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to ease at its Nov. 13 meeting or risk an unwelcome strengthening of the kiwi.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecasts third-quarter underlying inflation unchanged at 1.5% from the year earlier. That is way below the RBA's medium-term target of 2%-3%. "The inflation update will likely provide both the justification for the policy action of 2019 thus far, as well as support likely further easing," RBC economist Sulin Ong said.

"The governor's speech on Tuesday, ahead of CPI, may well give some further insights into their thinking on not just stubbornly low inflation but also any further policy implications." Futures imply around an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut to 0.75%, with a further move to 0.5% seen likely next year.