US natural gas futures fell for a second day in a row on Tuesday to their lowest in almost a month on forecasts for less cold weather and heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Meteorologists currently forecast the weather over much of the US Lower 48 states will remain near normal through Nov. 30 before turning colder than usual from Dec. 1-7 and then moderating again starting December 8.
On their last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 6.4 cents, or 2.5%, to $2.467 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:47 a.m. EST (1347 GMT), the lowest since October 28. That puts the contract on track to fall over 7% so far this week, which would be its biggest two-day decline since January 2019.
January 2020 futures, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 5 cents to $2.54 per mmBtu. With less cold coming, data provider Refinitiv cut its projection for average gas demand in the Lower 48 states to 117.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for next week from its previous forecast of 120.4 bcfd on Monday.
That compares with a forecast of 107.1 bcfd for this week. Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to a two-week low of 6.8 bcfd on Monday due to declines at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, down from 7.4 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on November 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico edged up to 5.1 bcfd on Monday from a near four-month low of 4.9 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on September 18.
Analysts said utilities likely pulled just 27 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 22. That compares with a withdrawal of 70 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average decline of 57 bcf for the period.
If correct, the decrease would cut stockpiles to 3.611 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 0.8% below the five-year average of 3.641 tcf for this time of year. Analysts said stockpiles will likely return to a surplus over the five-year average during the next month or so as rising production enables utilities to leave more gas in storage.
Gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to a record 95.9 bcfd on Monday from 95.8 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 95.2 bcfd last week.
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