Unemployment rate projection revised upward

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upward revised the unemployment rate projection for Pakistan to 6.2 percent for 2020 against 6.1 percent in 2019. In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF has projected inflation at 13 percent for 2020 against 7.3 percent in 2019 and 3.9 percent in 2018. The GDP growth rate has been projected at 2.4 percent for 2020 against 3.3 percent in 2019.

The current account deficit was -6.3 in 2018, -4.6 in 2019 and is projected at -2.6 for 2020. Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008-09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April), reflecting primarily a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain.

Yet with uncertainty about prospects for several of these countries, a projected slowdown in China and the United States, and prominent downside risks, a much more subdued pace of global activity could well materialize.