Certainties in uncertain times

Firefighting. Trapped. Blind Alley. Emotionally exhausted. Mentally fatigued. Search overload. Day-to-day. These are some of the feelings expressed by people who are going through life in the time of Covid-19. With a world shut down as never before this state of affairs is understandable. The game of survival defocuses attention to any other game. Uncertainty makes plans look futile and future frivolous. That is the trap of immediacy and urgency. That is the trap that entraps the trapped mind. That is the very trap that visionary leaders and organizations resist and refuse to fall into. And that is the trap that imprisons foresight and development.

Given the uncertainties, there are two certainties in these uncertain times. Firstly, that coronavirus will be maximum resolved in a matter of 12 to 18 months as the vaccine will be ready for mass use. Secondly, the time in between will make the normal business organizational functioning and strategies outdated and counterproductive. Visionary leaders and organizations work on whatever little constants are available even if they are nominal. The danger of just being in the survival day to day mode is that by the time the vaccine comes around and things start refunctioning, the organizational plans and strategies would have become dysfunctional.

Two wrongs do not make a right. We missed out planning for this pandemic for many years and consequently are in a quandary. If we repeat our behaviour and do not plan for the post-Covid-19 world, we will be responsible for further panic and destruction. The fact that saving life comes first is understood. The fact that there is little to base accurate predictions on its cure and containment is given. The fact that all resources should be pipelined to minimize the spread is logical. What is not logical or given is to assume that this emergency of saving lives creates such consuming of minds that the emergency of developing livelihoods for those who are alive post-Covid-19 should be left on the back burner. For sick patients we have plans for treatment, rehab and revival. Similarly, there should be plans for sick economies that are very soon going to be needing ICU (Intensive Care Unit) to survive, and then plans for rehab and recovery.

Planning needs to be done at the global level, national level, societal/individual level. At the global level, the various multilaterals are projecting economic costs of this Pandemic. The World Bank and IMF have already said the world is in this century's worst recession. The supply chains have been seriously disrupted. The demand pull has receded to a minimal. Consumerism and capitalism are on a screeching halt. At the country levels governments all over the world are overwhelmed and consumed by a pandemic that has become a maze of science and strategy. At the societal level extreme human reactions are creating more toxicity in the world. While the most affluent societies have become binge hoarders of groceries, many lesser countries are showing generosity beyond capability. As the first shock of what is happening eases off all 4 levels need to be ready with plans for creating the future.

1. Global Redesigning and Re-planning - Dooms day predictions are fairly well detailed by international organizations. However, what is lacking is a solution toolkit for getting out of the present global strategic paralysis and a plan for redirecting trade flows in the world post-Covid-19. The World Bank, IMF, OECD and every regional planning agency needs to do a 3-fold Scenario planning for the regions in the world and for global industries and sectors. The contingency plan for the most pessimistic, optimistic and realistic outlooks is mandatory. In each scenario the toolkit of solutions should be detailed to give a direction to the new World Order that can guide regions and countries to refer to them as guidelines for their respective plans.

2. Regional Sharing and Interdependence - The governments cannot afford to think of just keeping a score of daily infection rate control plan. They have to think of the possibility of a world with every possibility. It must envision a world where lockdowns become prolonged, or are eased up and finally removed. What will the region and individual countries look like in each case economically, socially and politically? What are proactive steps needed for each situation that need to be simultaneously undertaken to ensure that the pandemic unpreparedness does not get repeated in the post-pandemic economic planning?

3. Pakistan's Contingency Development Plans - Pakistan economy after a year and half of tough decisions seemed to be going in the right direction where trade deficits were being reduced and remittances and investments increasing. Covid-19 has made this recovery halt and recede. The government has to address two issues before these issues become economically endemic. Post recovery exports are not going to rebound as the main markets that were buying from us, i.e., Europe and the USA are themselves crashing. Remittances will become rare as labour is laid off in the Middle East and workers return home. This is where Pakistan needs to act now. Pakistan already had planned for market diversification. Central Asian markets should be approached through the rather inactive ECO (Economic Cooperation Organisation). An online ECO meeting on post-Covid-19 trade and development should be called to decide on having intraregional trade being pushed from the paltry 6% to something much more substantial.

4. Societal Change - They say if you need to see the character of a nation or individual see them under pressure. The consumerism of the last many decades has turned people into things. The constant urge to shop till you drop has overtaken many finer values. That is why from the US to Europe to Australia the sight of people buying in frenzy with utter disregard for others is something that is undermining the very essence of being human. The biggest lesson that the citizens of this world need to learn and adopt in the post-corona world is that neither a burgeoning dollar account, nor a palace with fool-proof security can save you from a mini micro substance invading your body. What can save you is the ability to care for and be cared by another human being, the selflessness of doctors and nurses risking their lives to save your life and the generosity of people who are ready to share their groceries and even their ventilators in this hour of adversity.

Such societal/individual values are normally reserved for an old age investment into buying property in Heaven for the life hereafter. This crisis has taught us that these values are not an afterthought but the need of the hour and months to come in the world here after Covid-19.

(The writer can be reached at [email protected])