Floods may cut Australia coal exports by 15 MN tonnes

SYDNEY: Australia's floods, which shut mines and damaged rail lines over the past several weeks, could cut coal exports by around 15 million tonnes in the December to March period, the government's chief commodities forecaster said on Friday.

The floods, which affected around 85 percent of the state's coal mines, could reduced coal export earnings by between A$2.0 billion and $2.5 billion ($1.97-billion-2.47 billion) over the period, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said on Friday.

"Parts of the Queensland rail network linking coal mines to ports have been severely affected by the flooding," the ABARES said in a special report.

Some of the export losses may be offset by higher prices as the bureau said it anticipated that metallurgical coal prices negotiated for the June quarter will be settled at significantly higher levels.

ABARES said higher prices would reflect a tight market balance created by the floods in Queensland which usually accounts for about two-thirds of the global metallurgical coal trade.

The flooding has been blamed on rains triggered by a La Nina Pacific weather pattern that has devastated huge areas of the eastern seaboard.

ABARES also estimated recent flooding in Queensland and other parts of eastern Australia had reduced agricultural production by at least $500 million to $600 million in 2010/11.

It said the winter harvest, including wheat, barley and canola, in most of the flood-affected regions was either complete or near completion before the recent flooding.

But a wet harvest means Australia, usually the world's fourth biggest wheat exporter, could see more than 10 million tonnes of wheat downgraded in quality to low quality milling wheat or feed wheat. A wet growing season means a near record 26 million tonnes of the grain could be harvested nationally.

ABARES also estimated that around seven percent of total Australian cotton plantings, valued at around $150 million in 2010-11 had been destroyed and a further two percent were at risk if the crops did not have the opportunity to dry out.

The 2010/11 Australian cotton harvest could be 3.95 million bales, 8 percent  below an earlier estimate but the July to June year harvest would still be a record, exceeding the 3.52 million bales harvested in 2001/02, Rabobank said in a report last week. (4.4 bales equals 1 tone)

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