CHICAGO: U.S. corn exporters booked nearly 12 percent of their expected annual shipments over just the past three weeks, the strongest such run in six years, according to U.S. government data on Thursday, as relatively low U.S. prices enticed buyers who had few alternative origins to choose from.
The yellow grain has been increasingly seizing the U.S. export baton from soybeans as sales of the oilseed last week fell to the second lowest since last June, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed.
Net U.S. old-crop corn sales totaled 1.27 million tonnes in the week ended Feb. 6 and 4.8 million tonnes over the past three weeks, the strongest three-week sales since January 2008.
Season-to-date corn sales totaled 34.6 million tonnes, the most through early February since the record 2007/08 (Sept/Aug) season and nearly 150 percent ahead of the same time last year, according to USDA data.
Corn prices have plunged 45 percent from last summer's highs after U.S. farmers harvested their largest-ever crop.
Meanwhile, prices in rival exporters have firmed amid tight supplies, logistics woes or, in the case of Brazil, displacement by prioritized soybean exports.
"You can't get the corn out of Ukraine. You can't get it out of Argentina. Brazil's nearly done shipping corn because their priority is soybeans right now," Terry Reilly, senior commodities analyst with Futures International, said of the top exporters after the United States.
"The U.S. is the only big volume supplier left to get corn from right now," he said.
SOY SLOWING SEASONALLY
After record sales in the first five months of the marketing year, the highly seasonal soybean export market is fast entering its quiet period as new-crop South American supplies are beginning to flood the world market.
Net U.S. export sales last week reached just 173,600 tonnes, down 70 percent from the previous week, according to USDA.
Season-to-date sales of almost 43.2 million tonnes are 5 percent above the latest USDA full-season forecast of 41.1 million tonnes.
Some sales to China have already been canceled and others have been switched to cheaper South American supplies. Top importer China has 1.79 million tonnes in unshipped purchases on the books and about half of the 5.1 million tonnes in sales to "unknown destinations" are believed to be earmarked for China.
"We expect upwards of 1.5 million tonnes of cancellations in the next 30 to 45 days," Reilly said.
"We won't see new (U.S.) sales shut down, but they will slow to a trickle from now until the end of the crop year with random sales here and there. Shipments will remain fairly strong until the end of the month and then sharply drop off."
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