The inevitable has happened. Pakistans largest water reservoir, Tarbela Dam has hit its dead level of 1378 feet.
The massive blow has come within three weeks after Mangla Dam approached its dead level, following the discharge of stored water in the reservoir.
The river flow has been disappointingly low during March, showing a 20 percent decline against the year ago period, according to official figures issued by Wapda.
The flow from the mainstream rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab has fallen drastically owing to extended drought and lower than expected rainfall during the period.
Luckily enough, though, despite suffering from 32 percent shortage of irrigation water during the first half of March 2010, water requirements for the Rabi crop have mostly been met.
The crops are in good shape and have not been hit that badly. But, the second half of March is very crucial for the late winter crops, as these crops need adequate water supply for maturity and harvesting.
Experts worry that if the remaining days of March are to replicate the first half, it could adversely affect the winter crops, which are ready for harvesting. The fears have gained substance as the closure of the Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal by Punjab has restricted the flow to the Sukkur Barrage.
The reduced intake has forced the Sindh Irrigation Department to hold back the release of irrigation water from the River Indus, which is going to have serious repercussions for the upcoming Kharif season in Sindh, due to start shortly.
The situation in Punjab is even worse as the province has lost 42 percent of its irrigation water share in the first fortnight of March 2010. Punjab government officials had to take emergency steps to route water from the thin reservoirs of Mangla Dam in an effort to save the wheat crop.
Data issued by the Punjab Irrigation and Power Department provide a peak into how difficult can the future days possibly be, if the current situation prevails beyond the Rabi season. Out of the 88 irrigation channels in the province, 59 are completely on halt, with zero head discharge to the agriculture lands.
The Met office rain forecasts do not sound that promising either. If there are insufficient or ill-timed rains in the province, especially in the Barani areas, which are entirely dependent on rainfall for the agriculture produce - things could worsen for the upcoming Kharif season.
Missing the crop target is just one part of the story; water shortage will also have unpleasant implications for the livestock sector, which contributes heavily towards the countrys GDP.
Moreover, with the summer fast approaching and the country gripped in furnace oil procurement fiasco, thanks to the circular debt crisis, a massive reduction in hydel power generation is very much on the cards.
In fact, the water shortage has already started showing its impact on power generation activities, as hydel generation nosedived by 35 percent during the first fortnight of the month
What is the remedy? Well, nothing for the short term except perhaps singing a rain song. For the long term; get over with politicking and build dams, or else just keep hoping on the weather gods to bless the land with sufficient showers throughout the year.
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