Forever, it looked like the mobile density of Pakistan was as flat as a pancake, but it has finally found some cracks as the mobile density plunged to 58 percent in January from nearly 60 percent a month ago.
The notable decline is more of an overdue technical correction than anything else, as the regulators campaign to discourage unauthorized SIMs gained momentum. The PTAs 668 initiative has reportedly led to the closure of 0.42 million SIMs throughout the country. By the looks of it, Warid seems to be at the receiving end of the biggest blow as its subscribers size nosedived by a good 14 percent.
Much to the dismay of the cellular companies, PTA intends to launch four such phases of the 668 campaign. The campaign will undoubtedly have a telling impact on the mobile density in the months to come and the previously steady density graph is all set for a journey towards the south.
But the 668 operation clean-up does not appear to be the major cause of concern for the telecom operators. The biggest headache to the cellular operators is the dying demand which has come to a halt since 2008. Add to that, the ever declining Average Revenue per User (ARPU), and it presents the industry with much to ponder over survival and sustenance.
The key to grow and sustain is hidden in the demographic mix of Pakistan as a large number of potential subscribers are waiting in the queue to be a part of the cellular family. The mobile density figures can often be misleading as the whole countrys population is taken into account to achieve the number.
A tad more than one-third of the countrys population is under 14 years of age, which is generally not a mobile phone usage age bracket. Excluding the kids, mobile penetration in the country at present touches 85 percent amongst the adults.
The number suggests that the saturation point has been reached, given that the rest of the population is either elderly people or rural women, where the preference is to share the mobile phone, if exercised.
Patience is now the key for the cellular companies as there are nearly 50 million potential subscribers in the waiting wings - these kids to ripen to the ideal age are the only way out for the industry to add to the subscribers base.
In the meanwhile, the operators have a task to create value addition to avoid further erosion in the subscription base. With m-banking already in the mix, there is a need to target the untapped agriculture sector with updated weather forecasts, useful farming techniques etc. M-agriculture services may well be the new avenue as the concept is being successfully run in the developing nations such as China and India.
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