It is that time of the year in Pakistan when the farming community says goodbye to the Kharif season and embraces the Rabi season. Growers prepare their farmlands to sow winter crops soon after the harvest of major crops like cotton, sugarcane and rice. Are the growers keen, this year too, to plant the Rabi seasons major crop, wheat? It appears not! In fact, the wheat harvest for the upcoming crop marketing year 2011-12 (MY12) is in serious jeopardy, as the cash crops sowing has been delayed. As things stand, growers are in a fix on account of market dynamics, policy disincentives and climatic conditions. For one, the delay in sugarcane crushing is denting pockets of growers whose cane crop is ready. A major portion of the nearly 1 million hectares of sugarcane area, upon harvesting, is prepared by growers for sowing wheat. That may not happen soon as the crushing season, which should have started by now, would not be in full swing for at least a month. The authorities decision to import sugar rather than purchase local sugar has frustrated sugar millers who claim to have excess sugar stocks and have expressed their financial inability to buy more sugarcane. It is difficult for the sugarcane growers to sit tight on their harvest which loses weight and moisture with time. Adding to the ado, the official sugarcane purchase price - set at Rs150 per maund in Punjab and Rs154 per maund in Sindh - is well below expectations of local growers who had eyed rates around Rs200 per maund. In Sindh, the situation is more worrisome, warns Qurban Ali Shah, President of Sindh Sugarcane Growers Association. "Most of the sugarcane crops are still under water. Roots have grown beneath the crop and farmers are worried over the crops weight-loss, which may reduce the yield by 50 percent. Despite growers efforts to drain rain-water out of the fields, tractors and trolleys cannot go into the marshy fields." Besides this, there are looming fears of a dismal wheat crop for the next marketing year. "Thus far, only 5 percent of the wheat cultivable area in Sindh has been cleared for sowing, and some 30 to 40 percent of the area is still immersed in water. Wheat can only be sown in the month of November and November is here, yet we do not see much activity in the farms," noted Qurban Ali. The situation in Punjab, too, demands attention. Dr. Qadir Bux Baloch, a grower and former federal commissioner for wheat & cotton, is deeply worried for the crop. "Though wheat sowing has started in the rice and cotton belts in barani areas of Punjab, this season, the farmers are not showing traditional zeal to grow wheat." Moreover, low sugarcane price and depressed phutti rates would severely disrupt the growers cash flows, notes Dr. Baloch. The sentiments of growers are at low ebb, as despite the skyrocketing input prices, there are no indications of a revision in official support price for wheat. "Listening to growers, I can somberly conclude that the wheat harvest in Sindh during MY12 could decline by as much as half of what it was in MY11. Still, the overall situation may not worsen in MY12, as the country has around 4 million tons of wheat stocks. However, real troubles might start going into MY13", warns Baloch. The prevailing situation must be weighing heavily on the decision-making process for an overwhelming majority of growers who cannot afford to buy inputs in cash and have few market linkages for price discovery and negotiation. All the above-mentioned issues suggest that growers are dejected. If things carry on like this, there would be little incentive for growers to increase the farming acreage or try new crop varieties for yield enhancement. If things don improve, it might lead to worsening of the livelihoods of tens of millions of farming households, besides making the country a net importer of wheat in FY12. The authorities need to take practical and urgent steps to help growers in managing the burden of rising input costs. Simply raising the wheat support price, without addressing the lacunae in the procurement exercise, will just not cut it anymore.
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