Of letter, contempt and election

In a continued tussle between the judiciary and executive - the Supreme Court is one up. It outlawed the new contempt of court act passed by the parliament last month. This was not surprising at all. Its not a question of who is right and who is wrong in all this ongoing fiasco; rather its an evolutionary process of institution building where a few institutions are trespassing in each others domains and by this iterative process a new equilibrium is going to be attained sooner or later. Nonetheless, the SC appears all set to send the recently appointed Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf packing unless he writes he letter to Swiss authorities. The new PM has until August 8 to write the letter, and now that the new contempt bill has been struck down, he has no immunity against being held in contempt of court, if he fails to bring pen to paper by then. His fate may not be much different from his predecessors. Critics were a dime a dozen, when the ruling coalition opted to install a PM already notorious as Raja Rental. However, this decision appears in line with the usual politics of South Asia. Last week in India, former energy minister Sushil Kumar Shinde was promoted to Home Minister despite the fact that half of that country has been plunged into darkness of late. The energy crisis in India brought on by the necessity to import expensive fuel; is as much alike Pakistans energy crisis as is the politics in the two countries. Just as Sushil is close to the ruling elite in India, so Raja Ashraf is cosy with the current regime. The question though, is how long can Raja hang on to the party policy of not writing to Swiss authorities for the inclusion of GoP as a civil party to proceedings there. So rife is speculation over Rajas likely exit that political pundits are already tossing names like Qamar Zaman Kaira as the next candidate for PM, or in this case, fall guy. How long can this game of musical chairs continue? How many faces are going to come and ridicule the democratic structure of Pakistan before the elections? The tenure of this government will be completed by February 13, 2013, and new elections are scheduled to take place before May 13, 2013. The opposition is pushing the government to dissolve the parliament and announce general elections in the country after installing a caretaker government. Under the circumstances, besides their own motives for an early ballot, the opposition has some moral altitude in this case. Through the 20th Constitutional Amendment, the opposition has already secured its role in the appointment of the caretaker government. Deliberations between the PMLN and the governments coalition partners are also gearing towards convincing the current cabinet to opt for elections instead of further facing off against the courts. The striking down of the new contempt law appears to have tilted the balance further in favour of an earlier election, but, if the current government has consistently surprised in one aspect, it is in the way it has persevered despite mounting resistance. What remains to be seen now is whether the PPP shall continue to field jiyalas, one after another instead of yielding to the SC, or will the ruling coalition pull out another rabbit from its legislative hat to thwart the courts for a few more months.