Though Pakistan and India have stepped up bilateral efforts to improve ties, de-escalate border tensions and boost trade and investment ties in recent times; the terms of endearment remain fragile. While border tensions, especially along the Line of Control remain, bilateral talks remain susceptible military muscle flexing on either side of the border.
This was true at the time of the Kargil war over a decade ago and it remains the situation on the ground today. The aggressive statements from Indias top military brass following border firing incidents that have claimed lives on both sides of the border, underscore this reality.
Yet freer movement of products and people is inevitable. The potential economic gains for billions of people in India and Pakistan are too great to be ignored much longer. The stakes are high for global powerhouses as well.
So it is little wonder that the United States of America has chosen to call on both sides to rely on dialog to address the current border tensions. After all, the US exit from Afghanistan, scheduled to be completed by 2014 is also heavily dependent on stability in this region; stability which will remain elusive without lasting peace between India and Pakistan.
Economic vibrancy from Lahore to Peshawar and from Multan to Faisalabad was historically dependent upon trade routes emanating from Delhi and Rajasthan. Besides, there are massive gains in terms of consumer surplus by opening up trade with India. If cheaper goods can benefit hundreds of millions of Pakistanis, perhaps the decline of some businesses here, which are not regionally competitive, should be acceptable as a casualty of creative destruction.
And in the medium to long run, like water finds its way, surviving domestic producers will emerge as more competitive and efficient players in the domestic and international markets. Then the knowledge spillover from big Indian enterprises, IT valley of Bangalore and many others is going to be of great significance for gaining economic and social surplus, especially in health and education.
Improved ties will also allow both countries to set aside the drums of war, once and for all and scale down massive spending on defense which has been a drain on national resources for decades on end. But as in any great battle, hearts and minds have to be won over in India and in Pakistan to bury the hatchet and the past. That process may be painstakingly slow, but it is inevitable.
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