After much revision and hand wringing by officials at the Ministry of Textile, the cotton production target was scaled down from 14.6 to 13.3 million bales at the start of this year.
But final figures for the outgoing season, which clocked in at 12.9 million bales, beg the question as to how did government agencies manage to go so wide off the mark?
The writing was largely on the wall for cotton production this season as the lackadaisical pace of arrivals over the course of the last six months has been indicative of what was to come.
Heavy and untimely showers in Punjabs cotton belt last year are being cited as the main culprit behind the production, sliding by nearly 22 percent year-on-year in the province that single handedly contributes 80 percent towards the countrys annual cotton crop.
Production in Sindh offered little respite. Total arrivals from the province were up by 27 percent year-on-year but the number does not indicate any major increase in yields or area harvested - and can be accounted entirely to a low base effect as a result of two successive years of flooding that destroyed the standing crop in the region.
And news for the upcoming crop seems similarly distressing. Sources report that rains in Punjab have hampered the sowing process and, in certain places, farmers have had to re-till on account of the damage caused. But if government advisory committees were to be believed, everything should be decidedly rosy come harvest time - a view that is not shared by many.
An official with the Ministry of Textile, who requested anonymity, was forthcoming about the "guess-timation" that has been sitting heavily at the heart of the matter. He said that ineffective planning and the unreal and largely off mark estimates set forth by governmental advisory committees have caused more damage to the cotton crop than any untimely rains could have done.
"With a large number of stakeholders at hand, it is true that speculation generally reigns supreme at the time of sowing and the contradictory advice laid forth by everyone from the meteorological department to the IRSA clouds the horizon for farmers," he said.
Sources report that the fall in cotton harvest area can be accounted to the fact that farmers are not being provided with timely information, which are causing them to shift their land towards wheat plantation. Production estimates at the wrong time are also detrimental to the cause, leading to unnecessary and unpredictable price shifts that affect both ginners and growers come harvest time.
At the tail-end of the season, with the new crop less than two months away, the government has already issued estimations that a 5.7 production increase is on the cards this season. But going by the track record, industry analysts believe that it would be better to take these estimates with more than a grain of salt.
================================================
Cotton crop scenario (bales in 000)
================================================
Arrivals Sep-May 12 Sep-May 13 Chg
================================================
Punjab 12,132 9,508 -22%
Sindh 2,682 3,407 27%
Total 14,814 12,916 -13%
------------------------------------------------
Sold to mills
------------------------------------------------
Punjab 11,169 9,031 -19%
Sindh 2,267 3,111 37%
Total 13,435 12,162 -9%
------------------------------------------------
Exports
------------------------------------------------
Punjab 769 208 -73%
Sindh 331 145 -56%
Total 1,101 353 -68%
================================================
Source: PCGA
Comments
Comments are closed.