Consumer confidence takes a hit

Taking cue from politics, even perception surveys seem to be protesting against the country's economic management.
Recall that not long ago economic managers were bragging about improving economic prospects. How times change! With the recent political hubbub, economic bosses seemed to be in auto-pilot mode, a reflection of which is visible in the latest SBP-IBA Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey.
The CCI underwent the second highest month-on-month decline (5.94 percent) since the beginning of data series and the largest since September 2012. That sounds ominous. On a year-on-year comparison, although CCI registered a 1.41 percent growth in September 2014, it remains negligible when contrasted with the growth rates achieved over previous months.
To add to the woes, consumer economic conditions index, which is a CCI sub-index, hit the biggest ever decline (6.88 percent) this month. With regards to the expectations of key economic elements as represented by expected economic conditions index, the situation is not rosy either.
Taking a cursory look at the survey break-down, it appears that optimism is gradually turning into pessimism in consumer's minds. Sliding macroeconomic conditions, rising prices of essential items, and seemingly rising unemployment compared to last six months are the key reflections of this survey.
However, there is some silver lining on the income level front. Expectations relating to rise in income levels over the next year have inched up a tad in September, perhaps due to yearly appraisals and associated salary increments.
And here comes the interesting nugget for data wooers. While consumers believe that its not the time to purchase durable household items and automobiles, consumer confidence in purchase or construction of new houses is rising. High inflationary expectations coupled with eroding purchasing power provide a sound rationale for consumers to invest now for a benefit later rather than spend now. This could also mean that rising demand will further strengthen real-estate prices in the future.