While the countrys northern part was caught in the worst petroleum crisis of its times, why does January sales of major petroleum products show an upward climb? The reason behind this increase in month-on-month volumes lies primarily with panic buying right towards the end of the month post the petrol crisis, as highlighted by Optimus Capital Management.
Overall volumetric sales of all the petroleum products increased by 11 percent, year-on-year, in January 2015. The key growth driver for the energy sales were the two major petroleum products: High speed diesel and motor gasoline, witnessing a year-on-year growth of 37 and 32 percent, respectively. Despite the petrol crisis motor, gasoline and high speed diesel grew by five percent and 16 percent, respectively. Analysts and industry experts point towards panic buying as the reason for month-on-month growth.
However, furnace oil sales plunged by over 12 percent year-on-year in January 2015 even though prices have dropped significantly. At the same time, petroleum imports for the last three months have finally been updated on the OCAC website, where motor gasoline and high speed diesel imports have remained more or less the same in the last six months, furnace oil imports have been on a declining trend since July 2014, and together with declining furnace oil consumption, it shows how the liquidity of the power sector and the oil marketing companies (particularly PSO) has been diminishing.
The positive impact of declining oil prices is yet to be seen in the volumes. Given the price inelasticity of petroleum products, the lower crude oil prices will prompt furnace oil demand by the power sector in the coming summer months, motor gasoline demand due to closing gap between CNG and petrol prices and ongoing CNG curtailment.
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