Development in provinces

Development budgets in Pakistan are seldom fully utilised. But that doesn’t stop provinces from making clear their noble intentions for development every year. Now, these provinces boast different economic profiles, so it is inevitable their development priorities would differ as well. Now that the four provincial budgets have all been announced, let’s see where the dough (or some of it) will be flowing next fiscal.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) leads the pack by allocating the highest share of its overall budgeted spending in FY16 to development expenditures (see the illustration). The FY16 provincial Annual Development Program (ADP), at Rs175 billion, has been increased by 25 percent over the previous year.
Looking at the numbers, the KP ADP comes across as a fair mix of social and physical projects, with the high point being development transfers to the third tier. District development is top on priority, having been allocated 17.3 percent of the budgeted ADP. This is followed by investments in education (12.7%), roads (10.8%), local government (10.4%), multi-sectoral development (7.8%), and health (7.1%).
Sindh ranks second this budget cycle in terms of most resources deployed to development. The Rs214 billion provincial ADP – which includes Rs9.6 billion federal grant as well – is slightly lower than previous year’s outlay, but is 38 percent more than revised FY15 budget estimate.
Sindh’s shopping list also seems a good mix of soft and hard infrastructure development. The highest sum in the Rs214 billion ADP is to go to district development schemes (Rs20 bn). Within the specified Rs169 billion ADP, irrigation will get 12.7 percent, followed by local governments (11%), energy (9.8%), health (9.1%), education (7.5%), planning & development (5.8%), roads (5.8%), and agriculture (5.5%).
Big brother Punjab lags when it comes to apportioning available resources to development (in percentage terms) – although the province’s FY16 ADP, in absolute terms, is higher than both Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s combined. The Rs400 billion ADP is 16 percent more than budget estimates and 38 percent more than revised estimates in FY15.
Punjab, as usual, is gunning for infrastructure development, which would take 40 percent slice (Rs161 bn) in the $4 billion ADP in FY16. Social sector, which includes education, health, family planning, water supply and sanitation, etc., receives a lower cut of 30 percent. Among the major earmarks, roads get 17 percent of the ADP, followed by education (14%), irrigation (9%), energy (8%), health (8%), and mass transit (7%).
However, Punjab’s infrastructure development budget could go even higher – up to 55 percent of the FY16 ADP – if you accounted for other infrastructure-related projects such as Lahore Orange Line, Multan Metro bus, district development program and special initiatives.
Over in Baluchistan, which has allocated the least share of its resources to development relative to its peers, there has been a slim hike in numerical allocations for next fiscal. Detailed budgetary documents are not available yet, so one is in no position to compare those allocations. But any comparison may have to sympathize with the difficult governance situation and local context in the province.