The US presidential election of 2016 is turning out to be a nightmare for both Democrats and Republicans. The campaigns of both parties, although still in its early stages, are moving towards unchartered territory.
On one side, there is a party that currently holds the White House but has only one presidential candidate who can satisfy most types of Democratic voters. But her campaign has been embroiled in controversy. Senator Bernie Sanders another Democrat candidate who is also doing well in the polls but he is too liberal for even a liberal party. On the other hand, there is a party that has too many candidates, and it is facing a chaotic fight for the party's nomination that is largely the result of its own missteps.
After winning the midterm elections of 2014, the Grand Old Party of America (GOP), commonly known as Republican Party was hoping to capitalise on Obama's unpopularity to the next race for the White House. Originally, this election was supposed to be about traditional GOP hallmarks. The security issues especially on the backdrop of threats from Islamic State to American interest, higher taxes on middle class and corporate America.
However, as it always happens, no one was able to predict the presence of Black Swans. The rise of non-politicians in the GOP presidential election polls, more precisely the phenomenal performance of real estate mogul Donald Trump, comes completely unexpected, and it now has shaken the core of Republican Party. No one was expecting Trump to not only maintain his poll rating but perform better than other well established GOP candidates.
GOP has miscalculated the mood of its core voters, and has also lost their trust to some extent. The current scenario is that the closer a candidate is perceived to be to the establishment of Republican Party, the less support they have from GOP voters.
But the story is not over yet. Over the years the GOP has built its political doctrine on the principles of Reagan model of economy, popularly known as Reaganomics. The model argues that the government should cut taxes to jump-start the economy.
However, the recent tax plan presented by the current Republican front-runner Donald Trump argues in favour of raising the corporate tax particularly on corporations that do not have the best interest of United States.
And Trump does not stop there. He wants to increase the tax rate on the income of hedge fund managers and wants to change the law that benefits US companies that move outside of US for lower tax rates. The plan has certainly raised the temperature among the establishment of Republican Party. This is the stage where the primary effects of Black Swan are kicking in. Everyone knows that although Trump is quickly able to capture the minds of disaffected Republicans but he still has a long way to go.
However, the ideas which Trump is throwing in like building a wall on US-Mexico border and his thinking about immigration policies are also picked up by other GOP candidates. A recent example is Scott Walker another GOP candidate who wants to build a wall on US-Canadian border and Chris Christie, who wants to put tracking devices on foreign visitors. These are the unexpected side effects of Trump's involvement, and it proves the presence of Black Swan. That is why GOP think tanks are making all the efforts to make sure that they can counter the arguments that Trump is making.
Trump is actually in the right place at the right time. He is taking advantage of GOP voter base that have grown tired of calculated politics and are willing to listen to the candidate who is not from Washington. Nevertheless, without a doubt other GOP candidates are watching the moves made by Trump very carefully and willing to take the same direction where Trump is heading.
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