The headline inflation for September 2016 stood at 3.9 percent, and same was the number for the first quarter average. The numbers are still comfortable and the inflationary expectations are yet to be priced in. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.2 percent versus 0.3 percent decline in the previous month.
Core inflation is picking up; NFNE reached 4.8 percent in September 2016 which is the highest since June 2015. The surge in core inflation is implying that demand driven inflation is picking up. The monetary easing cycle has started showing its effects and this may continue in the months to come. According to the SBP, the easing impact on demand lags by 11-12 months.
The supply side pressures are yet to be seen as government has not passed the rise in oil prices to the consumer.
That is not a worry so far, as the government did not reduce the prices to the tune of the fall in the international prices.
Within CPI basket, food prices increased by 3.1 percent in September, and on a monthly basis, the increase is around 0.2 percent. Food index increased by 3.1 percent in September and on a monthly basis, it is up by 0.2 percent, which is more of an adjustment to a steep decline in August.
There was a minor increase of 0.1 percent over August in transport index, as government is keeping fuel prices unchanged. The year on year fall is much less now at 3 percent.
The bottom line inflation largely is in control today; but there are grounds for it to resurge.
The 12-month moving average of whole sale price index is over zero after a long time. The impact would come on retailer prices in the months to come.
There are other indictors showing signs of heating. Monetary demand is picking up and the patterns of monetary assets are inflationary in nature.
The money supply increased by over 13 percent in the last twelve months; and the increase is more pronounced in reserve money growth. Government borrowing from the SBP is back in action; although, government has reduced it by around Rs200 billion in the last two weeks; the total stood at Rs650 billion in the first 11 weeks of the year.
This would put pressure on inflation. That said, the numbers may not be too ugly anytime soon - first half FY17 average may not go beyond 4 percent, while it may hover around 5-6 percent in second half the full year average may comfortably fall within governments target of 6 percent.
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