SYDNEY/WELLINGTON: The Aussie skidded on Tuesday after the Australian central bank held off from raising interest rates because of acute global uncertainty, leading some investors to wager it could actually be forced to cut in coming months.
The Aussie fell as low as $1.0919, down half a cent from New York. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cited uncertainty in global markets, a cautious consumer, weak credit growth and a high local dollar as some reasons for holding fire on rates.
Until recently, investors had seen more risk of a cut than a rise, but a surprisingly high reading for core inflation last week had put tightening back on the agenda.
"Some market analysts had expected a rate hike today but given the global uncertainties, we believe the RBA won't hike before the fourth quarter. Markets are now unwinding positions," said Nick Socratous, head of global foreign exchange at HSBC.
Rates have been on hold at 4.75 percent since the last hike in November 2010.
Futures markets rallied by as much as 20 basis points as investors priced out any chance of a hike. Instead, markets now imply an easing of 40 basis points over the next 12 months, from 27 bps before the RBA decision.
Australian bond futures soared, with the three-year contract surging to a two-year peak of 95.740, and cracking major resistance in the process. The 10-year climbed to one-year highs of around 95.075.
Yields had already been tracking Treasuries lower as soft global data and European debt jitters undermined stock markets across the globe.
Strong support for the Aussie is seen at $1.0910 and resistance at $1.1008, ahead of major barriers at $1.1029 with traders citing stops below $1.0900.
The Aussie last stood at $1.0929, well-off last week's 29-year peak of $1.1081.
It also neared a two-year trough on the Swiss franc at around 0.8531 francs. It also sank to one-year lows against the kiwi at NZ$1.2440, down 0.6 percent on the day, on diverging interest rate bets between the two nations.
Markets are pricing in some 70 percent chance of a 50 bps hike in September in New Zealand.
Against the greenback, the New Zealand dollar edged up to $0.8775, from $0.8760 in New York.
The kiwi, which has risen some 12 percent this year, looked to be consolidating after its recent heady run to a 30-year high of $0.8842 touched on Monday.
The latest wage and partial job data pointed to an improving labour market, but posing no immediate threat to the country's wage and price pressures.
"The improving domestic economic and labour market is now providing grounds for the central bank to remove the insurance cut," said ANZ-National head of markets economics Khoon Goh.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its key rates by 50 bps to 2.50 percent in March after the Christchurch earthquake. Since then, the economy has grown better than expected.
Full employment numbers will be released on Thursday with expectations for the jobless rate to stay static at 6.6 percent.
New Zealand government bonds were stronger sending yields 4 basis points lower along the curve, while interest rate futures were modestly higher.
Copyright Reuters, 2011
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