The Swiss franc: worth its weight in gold

GENEVA: With a robust economy, stable government and low public debt, Switzerland boasts all the ingredients that would make its heavily indebted neighbours turn green with envy.

But these virtues have attracted the unwanted attention of investors seeking a safe haven, sending the Swiss franc to records against major currencies that are now threatening the country's export-oriented economy.

Is the Swiss franc really worth its weight in gold?

"It's overvalued by far. Just looking at the interest rate differentials, people are losing about 1.5 percent interest each year just to know their money is safe in the franc," said Credit Suisse economist Claude Maurer.

"The only reason to buy the Swiss franc is really risk aversion," he said.

Jan-Egbert Sturm, who heads the ETH Zurich's KOF Swiss Economic Institute, also noted that people are simply putting money in the franc because "the other candidates are more likely to have some kind of a default problem one way or the other."

"Investors are accepting the higher insurance premium. If you see a hurricane coming on the weather charts, you're willing to pay a higher insurance premium to insure it," added Julius Baer chief strategist Christian Gattiker.

Nevertheless, "it is a pricey hedge," he added.

Paradoxically, investors' faith in the franc may well turn out to be it and the solid Swiss economy's undoing.

"The pressure on Switzerland is rising and rising. If you look at exports they have now turned negative," noted Sturm.

The franc has gained about 30 percent against the euro and nearly 40 percent against the dollar since a year ago.

The strong currency has started to bite hard into the earnings of Swiss companies, many of whom count the EU and the US among their biggest customers.

Pharmaceutical giant Roche blamed the strong franc for its 5.0 percent drop in second quarter earnings while Credit Suisse said the exchange rate took millions off its pre-tax profits.

Swatch boss Nick Hayek urged the central bank to fight the rise of the franc, saying that "we must defend ourselves."

On Wednesday, the Swiss central bank itself assessed that the franc was now "massively overvalued" and threatening the Swiss economy, and took measures to try to lower its value.

With the global economic outlook also weak, "the outlook for the Swiss economy has deteriorated substantially," assessed the central bank.

But while the move has halted an appreciation to 1.10 franc, it has not been able to drive it significantly lower.

Arturo Bris, finance professor at the IMD business school, warned that if "the European situation doesn't improve, then it's going to be dramatic for Switzerland in the long run."

What would take the glint off the franc is perhaps an economic slowdown in Switzerland, said some analysts.

"What would work ironically in favour of the SNB is the increasing recession risk for the Swiss economy in 2012," said Gattiker.

"It will show that things are not as good in Switzerland and as independent from everyone else and therefore would work against the Swiss franc at some stage," he added.

But even with clouds over the horizon, Gattiker is not optimistic that the currency would lose steam dramatically.

"I don't think we're going into the old trading rates of 1.40, 1.60. Ten to 20 years down the road we're more probably going to be in the 90 cents to 1.10 range," he warned.

Commerzbank analysts also believe that the franc would stabilise at a level of about 1.10 franc against the euro.

"Uncertainty remains elevated on the market and there is no sign of tensions easing in the eurozone debt crisis. Moreover, the markets are concerned about the US economy.

"Demand for the Swiss franc ... should remain elevated," they assessed.

Copyright AFP (Agence France-Presse), 2011