Ukraine sees higher winter grain losses after poor autumn weather

KIEV: Ukrainian winter grain losses could exceed average levels this year due to poor weather last autumn, but a mild winter and spring gives ground for an optimistic forecast for this year's harvest, the agriculture minister said on Monday.

"According to our preliminary estimates, the rate of winter kill could reach 13 percent, but an increase in the sown area by 7 percent last autumn could partially compensate for the fall," Oleksiy Pavlenko told Reuters.

Ukraine's grain winter losses usually amount to up to 10 percent.

"Now everything depends on the weather in March and May, critical months for our grain plants," Pavlenko said. Farms increased the area sown for 2015 winter grain harvest by 7 percent to 8.0 million hectares, according to the ministry.

The area under winter wheat, which accounts for around 95 percent of overall wheat production, rose by 12 percent to 6.8 million hectares, the ministry has said.

Pavlenko said that most of remaining grain crops was in good condition.

The condition of Ukrainian winter crops, mostly winter wheat, will affect the volume of permitted Ukrainian grain exports this season, which have already been limited.

The government and traders have agreed that no more than 1.2 million tonnes of milling wheat will be exported in the first half of 2015 and the government can impose restrictions if exports exceed specified volumes.

The exports of feed wheat should not exceed 3.4 million tonnes between January and June but the government said volumes could be reviewed depending on the situation of winter grain crops.

"Now everything is going in normal mode. The export market is calm," Pavlenko said.

His deputy said last month that the ministry was ready to impose measures to defend the local grains market if a sharp devaluation in the country's hryvnia currency causes a jump in exports.

The hryvnia has lost around 50 percent of its value against the dollar this year.

Ministry data shows Ukraine has exported around 24.3 million tonnes of grain so far this season, including 9.2 million tonnes of wheat, 11 million tonnes of maize and 3.9 million tonnes of barley.