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Abdul Aziz is fifty-five years old retired banker. He opted for golden handshake and accepted the terms and conditions for premature retirement. He calculated the impact of this offer on his living and found out that in all he would be getting around twenty-five thousand rupees ( Rs 25,000) per month on his investment of the entire handshake money in any one of the National Savings, Schemes. He thought his principal amount would remain safe and the return steady with the passage of time.
The life would be comfortable as by the time his investment matures for six-monthly "profits" and his son passes his graduation examination and enters into the job market, there would be enough to live a decent life. The additional income coming from his son's wages would offset effects of inflation and increase in the miscellaneous daily use articles, including medical care charges, if any. The two daughters that were ready to be married would be going to their new homes, he dreamed when the offer came to him.
He looked at himself and found that he was young enough to opt for a part time job as to sit idle was not in his nature. It would keep him physically fit and busy after the liabilities of the family had been settled. His wife, still in her forties, would now think of rearing her grand children. Circumstances permitting, the couple would go for pilgrimages to holy places and attend to other religious duties. Enough had been done for worldly gains and it was time to reflect on the past doings and make amendments where needed. The world here-after has its own demands and I would focus on that need.
He didn't know that his destiny had surprises for him. To begin with, return on his deposits began dwindling because of the repeated reduction in the rate of interest by the NSS on its various saving plans. His son, after graduation, remained unemployed for more than three years and finally left in search of greener pasture abroad never to return. The country, which was alien to him, did not find him a sustainable source of income. "He is still grappling with his circumstances and is not sure if there are chances of his settling down in the near future," a shattered Aziz Sahib says.
In the beginning Aziz Sahib used to get phone calls from his son requesting for financial help but lately this has stopped. The son has probably realised the circumstances of his father and the way poor people are being forced in Pakistan to be poorer and poorer day by day (the number of people living below poverty line has increased from 33 percent to 36 percent (UNDP report). The son knows that there is drastic reduction in the earnings of his father and he is being pushed into the white-collar poverty that has entrapped his father and millions of others, into the increasing social insecurity and social injustice the State has no time to deal with.
One of the two daughters is still waiting for her prince charming to come and the other is settled comfortably with her two cute baby girls and a well-placed husband to look after them. Aziz Sahib's son knows that his father would never talk to his daughters about his problems and suffer silently from the socio-economic pressure that has no solution. For this reason his last telephone call was to ask from his father if he wanted him back to Pakistan to which Aziz Sahib had replied -"stay there, at least you get food coupon to survive"- here, I do not have any such hope even.
Monthly income from his investment in NSS is half of the amount he used to get earlier. It has come to about Rs 12,000 now. The fear of further cuts in the rates of interest still looms large.
He has no other source of income at a time when his need for more money has increased as the prices of daily use articles have gone up during these five years. "The kind of poverty I fear most is approaching fast. I will be living in a middle income colony, putting on nicely stitched clothes, confining to a one-dish meal, avoiding most of the family gatherings for fear of exchanging gifts and return dinners and going out and coming in - home - empty pocket, " Aziz Sahib, a retired banker, says.
He says: "The first quarterly report for the year 2003-2004 of the State bank of Pakistan circulated recently, has nothing much to say about the kind of poverty people like me are going into in Pakistan. However, there are oblique references to the state of poverty people have been caught into. Discussing very briefly "prices" what the report says, Aziz Sahib quotes. "Annualised inflation remained weak throughout the first quarter of the financial year 2003-04 (Q1-FY-04), with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation both continuing the downtrend visible since 2003, while the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation witnessed a rise. Although both food and non-food components of CPI recorded lower increase relative to Q1-FY03, the deceleration was more pronounced in food inflation. Similarly, the acceleration in WPI stemmed largely form non-food components. However, the steep rising trend in marginal CPI inflation during Q1-FY04, a spike in the October 2003 year on year (YoY) CPI inflation, as well as the relative strength of non-food prices suggest that inflationary pressure in the economy, while still weak, are probably strengthening."
Specially, the annualised CPI inflation was 2.6 percent at end-September 2003. This is significantly lower than the 3.6 percent figure recorded in the corresponding period of FY03 and is the lowest level for over three decades. However, since the marginal (YoY) CPI inflation has bounced back strongly to reach 2.2 percent in September 2003 after bottoming out at 1.4 percent in July 2003, the sustainability of the very low annualised inflation is unclear.
Aziz Sahib is of the opinion that the inflation assessment hardly brings any relief to those who are in the fixed income group and those who are retired and dependent upon other members of their families.
He says that the dependency rate in Pakistan is horrifying. It is estimated that 80 percent -- population under 15 and above 64 years is dependent upon their families (Social Development in Pakistan - annual review 2002-2003, a publication of SPDC).
Aziz Sahib says though the SBP report does not come out explicitly with its findings about poverty and does not show its fear about its growth and consequences, but it has, in one way or the other acknowledged the trend of general poverty and selective prosperity in Pakistan. The SBP findings on health issue further strengthens some of the apprehensions that people would be poorer and poorer in the near future as well.
"The country's health indicators depict a dismal picture when compared with other countries at the same level of development.
The country's health indicators are poorer than the low-income countries such as Bangladesh, China and Sri Lanka. The poor outcome in health sector is mainly due to the ineffective delivery of services as well as the low spending on the health sector in Pakistan, which remained very low relative to other developing countries. In addition, even this low level of spending on health sector declined from 0.8 percent of GNP in FY90 to 0.7 percent of GNP in FY02. Not only the spending on health sector is low but also its allocation within the sector is directed to the areas that do not benefit the poor. Clearly, high priority was given to hospitals, medical college and curative services in urban areas, while primary and rural health services have been ignored which has led to a high rural-urban disparity in health care resulting in rapidly increasing poverty in rural areas during the last decade.
"Poverty is thus both a consequence and a cause of ill health. Illness pushes people into poverty through lost wages, high spending for severe illnesses and repeated treatment for other illnesses. Due to inadequate nutrition and hence lowered immunity, poor are more susceptible to diseases pushing them deeper into poverty. A recent study shows that 55 percent of the poor and 65 percent of the extremely poor were ill in Pakistan.
"Since wages are commonly low, particularly in rural areas, unskilled labour, subsistence farmers and small holders are often forced to sell their meagre assets and eventually borrow money to finance the treatment of their loved ones. Thus, the prevailing primary healthcare system in Pakistan pushes a vulnerable household into poverty and the poor household deeper into poverty."
Where does Aziz Sahib fit in? His earning capacity is already eroding and purchasing power is wearing down. Cost of living, including property tax, water and sewerage charges and utility rates are increasing unabatedly; and, transportation cost and PoL prices have gone skyrocketing. Food items, medicines and lifesaving drugs are becoming costlier day by day and fear of incapacitation resides at hand as law and order situation shows no sign of improvement. Aziz Sahib fears he may be robbed off his meagre belongings any day and at any time. He may be shot dead for a ten-rupee note even.
His son has disappeared somewhere in a foreign land and has shattered all his hopes at a time when his age is advancing and nerves weakening. He is in need of a secure future and financial and emotional security, which the State is unable to provide. He has lost his faith in his future and, at times, reflects on his various decisions that he had taken in the past for the welfare of his family and for himself. He is now left with shattered hopes.
What kind of poverty is it?, he thinks.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2004

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