CURRENT TOPICS: 2003 - No au revoir or farewell, just bye bye

It was a year of turmoil for Pakistan. Another similar year would be a disaster.
After full 12 months of democracy, our government is neither a fish nor a fowl. No legislative work worth a dime has been done. MNAs remained busy shouting, screaming and thumping the desks, occasionally walking out to the cafeteria to replenish their scarred and sore vocal chords to come back and resume the pandemonium. Of course all differences were sunk when a proposal was put on table to increase their own emoluments.
Despite LFO spelling out limits on their power, they contested elections and flocked to the Assembly. Once in, they decided to cross swords with Musharraf not only to undo LFO but the President too. The MMA took the lead; the splintered PPP with its head cut off, gave a lukewarm support, while weakened PML-N was not much of a threat. Musharraf played them along without coming down hard because he considered MMA lesser evil than BB's PPP or Nawaz's PML. He also knew that sooner or later MMA would agree to a compromise because they would never be able to resurrect again if he chose to banish them by dissolving the assemblies.
At the Centre Jamali had nothing much to do by way of governing and kept himself occupied with ceremonial functions. However, a couple of visits abroad added to his self-confidence as a leader. He faithfully followed Presidential directives and kept the Opposition at bay with interminable talks to resolve the constitutional impasse. In the meantime Musharraf has kept on with his reforms agenda, sustaining improvement in economy. Revenue collections are keeping pace with the targets, although there is much room to escalate. International debt portfolio is better managed thanks to SBP's policies. For the first time foreign exchange reserves have crossed 10 billion mark, the rupee is gaining marginal strength against dollar, Stock Exchange is buoyant and by the end of the year GNP will achieve acceptable growth of 5%. This climate of well-being was rudely shaken when SBP's report reminded the optimists that amidst all the talk of poverty alleviation, over the years statistics of people living below the subsistence level had gone up to 35% instead of any noticeable reduction. Admitted this state of affairs has accumulated over many years of mismanagement but unfortunately Musharraf has not been able to make a dent during his rule. Notwithstanding the hyped prosperity, people are groaning at rising cost of living. Unfortunately we have not been able to inspire confidence for foreign or even domestic investment.
Politically instability has prevailed throughout the year. The religious militant extremists have remained on the warpath, with sectarian violence and attempts to eliminate Musharraf. The banned parties have resurfaced under new names. The government is either unable or unwilling to suppress them completely. They not only oppose our friendship with America but are also against building bridges with India. As I write this, prospects are bright for reconciliation with MMA.
The only stumbling blocks which remain are extension of Judges' tenure and the President's uniform on which a compromise is in the offing giving Musharraf time upto 2007 to steer the ship of the state, unless torpedoed before that by some hot heads.
Speaking of India, the confidence building measures initiated by Vajpayee and accepted by Pakistan are working towards rapprochement and creating climate for serious negotiations. With the arrival of Vajpayee for Saarc meeting, further improvement in relations is likely. In this connection Musharraf's unilateral proposal to stop flogging the dead horse of UN Resolutions and explore fresh avenues to resolve the Kashmir conundrum is significant. It has been interpreted differently by his supporters and opponents, while India is yet to decide the response.
Loya Jirga in Afghanistan having accepted presidential form of government, hopefully Karzai would emerge a strong man to repair relations with Pakistan. Warlords have remained a threat to Kabul government's sovereignty and Taliban activities have prevented national reconstruction. Al-Qaeda, though defeated, are defiant within Afghanistan and along the border with Pakistan. With it's involvement in Iraq, America seems to have put Afghanistan on backburner. If and when normalcy would be restored in this part of the region is anybody's guess.
The euphoria generated by Saddam's capture may not last long as immense problems confront the occupation forces in Iraq to restore democracy and withdraw honourably. US refusal to allow European countries and Russia to participate in reconstruction would delay rebuilding of the country and restoring peace. Gaddafi's sudden summersault has come as a pleasant surprise to the western world. It seems he has decided to bend with the wind. A thaw on Israel-Palestine confrontation is on the cards. People who argue that Israel too should be forced to give up nuclear arsenal, forget that while Gaddafi was a rogue to US-UK, Sharon is a saint if not an angel.
2003 is, therefore, ending on an uncertain note with prospects of reduced tensions around the world in 2004.