EU grain harvest heads for revival in 2004

Europe's grain crop in 2004 is set to rebound strongly from last year's weather-hit levels but farmers will still be anxiously watching the skies over the coming months, analysts said on Friday.
The first plantings data for the 2004 harvest show a revival in output after a season marred by frosts and then a scorching heatwave, which forced the European Union to suspend export tenders and sell off stocks to cool internal prices,
"The arrival of the new crop will tend to ease the supply squeeze in the EU and eastern Europe based on the planted areas and weather patterns we have seen over the last few months," A2Z Grains said in its monthly report.
French analyst Strategie Grains put the EU-15 cereals crop at 217 million tonnes, up from 184 million last year and 209 million in 2002. For the EU-25, as it will be from May, the harvest would be 270 million tonnes versus 228 million in 2003.
French wheat production is expected to be 37.6 million tonnes against less than 30 million last year, Strategie Grains said in a preliminary forecast.
"Obviously weather events over the upcoming months could completely alter this picture," it added.
German analysts said weather has been generally mild, with sufficient frost to combat fungus and insects but not enough to damage crops. "Overall things are looking good so far," one said.
Official figures show German winter grain plantings up 6.7 percent on the year with wheat up 7.5 percent.
In Britain, analysts say wheat output could jump to 16 million tonnes this year from 14.3 million in 2003 if growing conditions stay favourable between now and the harvest.
"The mild weather is helping to bring everything on," agronomist John Garstang at leading crop consultants ADAS said.
"It looks like we're back to normal again," he added.
But Italy's soft wheat area this year is estimated to have fallen slightly from a year ago because of a lack of rain during the planting period, while the durum area seems steady.
Paolo Magaragga, crop analyst with Italy's biggest farmers' group Coldiretti, estimated that Italy's soft wheat area would drop to around 550,000 hectares from 580,000 a year ago.
"I see a reduction in the soft wheat area in Italy because there was little rain in the planting period until November, hardening the soil," he said.