World wheat output seen increasing

Thriving crops in Europe should help pull world wheat supplies back up from last year's weather-damaged levels in 2004, as global output leaps to 601 million tonnes from 554 million in 2003, according to an international grains report on Thursday.
"Half of the increase is in Europe, where winter wheat areas increased in several countries and crops are in good condition," the International Grains Council (IGC) said, adding that production in the enlarged European Union could leap by around 20 million tonnes from last year to 127 million in 2004.
Wheat output fell sharply in Western Europe last year after a drought and a summer heatwave that further ate into dwindling yields.
It said there would also be output gains in Bulgaria and Romania, but warned that in spite of better growing conditions in Russia and the Ukraine compared with last season, production is unlikely to fully recover to 2002 boom-time levels.
Risks of smaller output were also higher in the US western plains, the IGC said, where smaller-than-expected winter wheat sowings and dry conditions may cut US wheat output by two million tonnes this year to 62 million.
And while Indian wheat output climbs to 73 million tonnes, four million more than 2003, Chinese production looks set to fall to 85 million tonnes, its lowest in 25 years.
Global output of coarse grain crops like barley and maize is also on track for a recovery, the IGC said, to around 892 million tonnes in 2003/04 from 881 million tonnes in 2002/03.
It put world wheat consumption at 587 million tonnes for 2003/04, a drop of 13 million tonnes on 2002/03, while wheat stocks for this season were put at 131 million tonnes, some 33 million tonnes down from 2002/03.
Global coarse grain stocks are expected to fall to around 127 million tonnes in 2003/4, the IGC report said, four million tonnes lower than its November estimated and some 35 million down on its estimate for 2002/03.
The IGC said that coarse grain stocks in the five major exporters - Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the US - would fall to 48 million tonnes in 2003/04 from 57 million tonnes in 2002/03.
"We've reduced the figure for coarse grain stocks in the main exporting blocks by eight million tonnes from our last report, largely because of anticipated lower production and increased usage in the US and the likelihood that a weaker dollar will boost exports from that area," a spokesman for the IGC said.