The US cotton sales will jump with the return of leading importer China from Lunar New Year celebrations when the weekly USDA export report is handed out Thursday, cotton brokers said.
The brokers forecast that US net upland cotton sales would range from 200,000 to 500,000 running bales (RBs, 500-lbs each), up from the prior week's sales of 59,300 RBs.
Heavy buying believed done by Chinese importers hit the cotton futures market starting on Thursday last week. Brokers said the question in most of the trade is whether the bulk of those sales were reported to the USDA for this week's report.
"I suspect what we sold was not all reported on time. We will only get a better picture of actual sales in the next USDA report," said a broker in the US Southeast.
China has become the focus of the cotton trade after its heavy purchases propelled cotton prices to their highest level since late 1995.
According to the latest USDA figures, China has bought 3.271 million RBs of cotton so far in the 2003/04 marketing year (August/July), well above the 703,500 RBs the Asian giant had bought at this time last year.
The pace of cotton shipments covering previously booked orders should also pick up steam, the brokers said, projecting the shipments will range from 250,000 to 300,000 RBs, against 196,200 RBs in last week's data.
"We need to stay above 300,000 (RBs) to meet the USDA target for (cotton) exports," a dealer said.
USDA, in its latest monthly supply/demand report, forecast US cotton exports in 2003/04 at a record 13.2 million (480-lb) bales. In 2002/03, exports hit a then record 11.9 million bales.
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