The two day trading on market opening did not fare as expected, as phone calls received by brokers did not convey any thing more than just Eid greetings and comments on developments on country's political fronts.
However, the official spot rate lay dormant, and showed pre-holidays' level at Rs 3250 without 15 percent sales tax and upcountry expenses.
WORLD SCENARIO: The hope, that China will unleash the pent-up demands tethered during Chinese New Year's Day Celebrations, did not come true.
The surge expected in cotton futures showed rather a slight down-turn. The NYCE's first day's proceedings were not at hand as newspapers' holidays had begun in Pakistan.
The trading in New York on Wednesday, traders said, crawled to a firmer finish on trade and speculative buying, as players awaited weekly USDA export sales report. Heavy buyers (believed to be Chinese) hit the cotton futures market last week.
However, brokers said mixed buying from trade and speculative account gave the market only a mild boost.
On Thursday speculative and options related sales took place, with most of the trade giving a muted reaction to brisk cotton sales appearing in the weekly USDA export sales report.
Brokers opined that market rose in the previous two sessions in anticipation of the USDA data. But, they said, futures slipped when no follow-through buying emerged.
The fact that good sales were made to many countries shows that world demand for cotton is healthy.
However, no one wants to hit the market hard until options get out of the way tomorrow.
Last session on Friday closed firmer on modest speculative buying although the focus of the trade was on options expiration of the March contract, analysts said.
The wait had again begun for a pair of USDA reports next week to determine a direction.
LOCAL TRADING: Almost a full week long trading was scrapped by Eid-ul-Azha celebrations followed by Kashmir Day and then MMA's call for a strike. The final two day thus left were generally passed in exchanging greetings and comments on developments on the political front.
The last day also had a news (that dampened enthusiasm and pent-up demand) that EU had finally imposed around 13 percent anti-dumping duty.
The eager importers in EU were shocked to find that Pakistan lost by merely one vote (8-7). They expressed the opinion that had government of Pakistan not procrastinated, its efforts would have borne fruit.
However, when after prolonged holidays, market opened on Friday, operators had come with great hopes that buyers would rush to cover for the missed days.
The only feature, if it can be called that, was the fact that the official rate was unchanged at Rs 3250.
SATURDAY'S: Trading in cotton remained lifeless even on the second day. Of course, as per expectations of the market, official rate was also unchanged. The normal trading is likely to start early next week.
DD: DELAYED EFFORTS CAUSED IT: The European Union's intent to impose anti-dumping duty was being heard for a few months. The exporters, particularly those who were engaged in bed-linen exports were coaxing and vexed how to deter EU moves.
They had been naturally looking up to authorities to protect them, and ultimately, the country, from the great loss which was staring hard in exporters faces.
However, the matter was belatedly taken up, and member states were approached to find a way out to avoid imposition of anti-dumping duty. Some exporters expressed sympathy with Pakistani exporters and felt shocked at the 8-7 vote loss.
There is still one month for the decision to take effect. Can it be reversed if fought out anywhere like WTO conciliation body? But follow up protests or similar things have not been seen or heard. Are Pak exporters to bear the 13 to 14 pct loss in the shape of anti-dumping duty? Time is hard; that the trading system will get globalised in not too distant future, is virtually in sight.
The exporters, and those who in government are responsible to somehow achieve the export target of 12.1 billion dollars, should ponder how to make up the shortfall, how to prepare in case obstacles come in the way again.
Unfortunately, the exporters have taken a defensive attitude all along by sticking to exports of cheap products.
Such products like yarn, grey cloth and even bed-linen, have, as history is witness, always run a risk of anti-dumping duty imposition.
Such a case (if memory serves right) about yarn is pending in America. What happens, if, God forbid, that country imposes some sort of penalty?
RELIABLE DATA: The availability of reliable data on cotton production and consumption was rightly voiced surprisingly by one of the major players.
The PCGA in a recent report has pointed towards an issue which was long overdue. The realisation has dawned, but the remedy has not been suggested. In the early part of a recent report, it criticised the official estimate on production which it thought was wrongly presented.
The report quoted official estimate which, it said, under pressure was scaled down from 10.5 million bales to 10 million bales.
The knowledgeable circles noted with concern, wondering who will take the responsibility. No vested interest has done justice to, what they said, 'national cause'.
"The national cause demands that individual interest is made subservient to superior causes. Let the pious hope of a reliable data take a shape for greater good of the country."
They further pointed out that the ginners have themselves presented varied cotton production estimates which were not taken lightly by the spinners.
That meant that it was a free for all to think and act in their own interests. One of the exceptions however could be stated here, that not too long back accused officials for toeing spinners' line.
However, such debates and counter arguments continue. What however needs to be mentioned is a Customs charge that such false claims have given ground to a huge loss of Rs 20 billions.
The issue of reliable data remains, as only this sector (textiles) brings bulk of foreign exchange.
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