Sri Lanka's general elections on April 2 are likely to produce a hung parliament, with no party winning a clear majority and a Tamil group holding the balance of power, according to a Reuters poll of 12 financial institutions.
The analysts predicted President Chandrika Kumaratunga's opposition alliance would win a narrow victory but would fail to gain a majority.
The alliance between Kumaratunga's left-leaning Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Marxist People's Liberation Front (JVP) was likely to win 104 seats in the 225-seat parliament, based on the median of forecasts.
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) and its allies were forecast to win 99 seats. In the dissolved parliament, the SLFP and the JVP had 95 seats together, while the UNP and its allies had 114.
There are no other opinion polls on the upcoming elections but markets have been paying close attention to the outcome, with the stock market and rupee responding swiftly to developments.
Analysts said an inconclusive result could mean more delay in restarting talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and in ending a two-decade-old war in which more than 64,000 have died.
"In that event (of a hung parliament), the president's alliance could try to form a minority government, but then they will need an understanding with smaller parties not to vote against them," said Jehan Perera, a media director at independent think-tank, the National Peace Council.
The forecasts also suggested that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) could emerge as a strong force in the elections and provide the crucial seats needed for a majority by either side.
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