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The Director of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) George Tenet on Tuesday said that President Pervez Musharraf "remains a courageous and indispensable ally" who has become the target of assassins "for the help he has given us."
Partners in Southeast Asia, he said "have been instrumental in the roundup of key regional associates of al Qaida."
He said this in a testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, on 'The World-wide Threat 2004: Challenges in a Changing Global Context.'
The world today, he stated "is equally, if not more, complicated and fraught with dangers for United States interests, but one that also holds great opportunity for positive change."
Tenet said the al Qaeda leadership structure "we charted after September 11 is seriously damaged - but the group remains as committed as ever to attacking the US homeland."
But as the US continues the battle against al Qaeda, "we must overcome a movement, global movement infected by al Qaeda's radical agenda."
"In this battle we are moving forward in our knowledge of the enemy his plans, capabilities, and intentions. And what we've learned continues to validate my deepest concern: that this enemy remains intent on obtaining, and using, catastrophic weapons."
Military and intelligence operations by the United States and its allies overseas have degraded the group. Local al Qaeda cells are forced to make their own decisions because of disarray in the central leadership.
Al Qaida depends on leaders who not only direct terrorist attacks but who carry out the day-to-day tasks that support operations.
Over the past 18 months, we have killed or captured key al Qaeda leaders in every significant operational area - logistics, planning, finance, training - and have eroded the key pillars of the organisation.
Tenet said "South Asian ballistic missile development continues apace."
"Both India and Pakistan are pressing ahead with development and testing of longer-range ballistic missiles and are inducting additional SRBMs into missile units. Both countries are testing missiles that will enable them to deliver nuclear warheads to greater distances
On world-wide trends of proliferation, he said some of it is good news - I'll talk about the Libya and AQ Khan breakthroughs, for example - and some of it is disturbing. Some of it shows our years of work paying off, and some of it shows the work ahead is harder.
"We are watching countries of proliferation concern choose different paths as they calculate the risks versus gains of pursuing WMD."
On the roll-up of AQ Khan and his network, he said it is one of the most significant counter-proliferation successes in years and one in which intelligence led the way.
About September 11 aircraft plots alone, Director Tenet said "we have uncovered new plans to recruit pilots and to evade new security measures in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe."
"Even catastrophic attacks on the scale of September 11 remain within al Qaeda's reach. Make no mistake: these plots are hatched abroad, but they target US soil or that of our allies."
But al Qaeda is not the limit of terrorist threat world-wide. Al Qaeda has infected others with its ideology, which depicts the United States as Islam's greatest foe.
The ongoing war against terrorism, he said "is a sustained world-wide effort to get the perpetrators and would-be perpetrator off the street. This is an important preoccupation, and we will never lose sight of it."
"We count approximately 50 countries that have such "stateless zones." In half of these, terrorist groups are thriving. Al Qaeda and extremists like the Taleban, operating in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area, are well known examples."
He said "as the war on terrorism progresses, terrorists will be driven from their safe havens to seek new hideouts where they can undertake training, planning, and staging without interference from government authorities.
The prime candidates for new "no man's lands" are remote, rugged regions where central governments have no consistent reach and where socio-economic problems are rife."
"Many factors play into the struggle to eradicate stateless zones and dry up the wellsprings of disaffection."
On population trends, he said more than half of the Middle East's population is under the age of 22. "Youth bulges," or excessive numbers of unemployed young people, are historical markers for increased risk of political violence and recruitment into radical causes.
The disproportionate rise of young age cohorts will be particularly pronounced in Iraq, followed by Syria, Kuwait, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Opium production and sell, he said was a continued threat of the global narcotics industry.
As evident by the doubling of the Afghan opium crop in 2003, the narcotics industry is capable of moving quickly to take advantage of opportunities presented by the absence of effective government authority.
Although the linkages between the drug trade and terrorism are generally limited on a global basis, trafficking organisations in Afghanistan and Colombia pose significant threats to stability in these countries and constitute an important source of funding for terrorist activity by local groups.
This combination of flexibility and ability to undermine effective governmental institutions means that dealing with the narcotics challenge requires a truly global response.

Copyright Associated Press of Pakistan, 2004

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