US Treasury prices surge

US Treasuries ended higher on Tuesday after a surprisingly large fall in consumer confidence helped cement the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates any time soon.
With Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan making a third appearance this week to discuss the economy, investors kept a tight rein on price swings, analysts said.
In the morning, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped briefly below 4.00 percent, a level the market has been trying to break for some weeks, when the Conference Board reported that February consumer confidence fell to its lowest since October.
The rally lost some steam as the day wore on in anticipation of what Greenspan might say on Wednesday when he addresses the US House Budget Committee.
Greenspan spoke to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday about government-sponsored enterprises, but did not mention jobs or the economy.
"It's just profit-taking. I wouldn't expect the market to do too much in front of Greenspan tomorrow," said Barclays Capital debt strategist Gemma Wright.
"Right now, everyone's pretty close to neutral duration. Positions are probably very limited in risk exposure," she said.
At 5 pm, 10-year notes were up 3/32 in price to yield 4.03 percent, down from 4.04 percent on Monday but up from a low of 3.99 percent hit after the confidence data.
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence sank to 87.3 in February from 96.4 in January, surprising analysts, who had looked for a drop to only 92.5. There had been speculation the number would be much weaker than expected, but the result was still a surprise.
The two-year Treasury note, the most sensitive to market thinking on official rates, was up 2/32 to yield 1.64 percent, down from 1.67 percent on Monday.
Two-year notes had already rallied on Monday and traders were reluctant to push them much further for fear of scaring investors away from Wednesday's $26 billion auction of new paper.
Five-year notes were up 3/32 in price to yield 2.99 percent, against 3.01 percent, while 30-year bonds gained 2/32 in price to yield an unchanged 4.90 percent.