Slight swing in cotton trading was seen towards the end of the week ended on February 28, 2004, on worries that abrupt rise in cotton futures in New York would push local lint prices also.
The official rate stayed adamantly put at Rs 3100 without 15 percent sales tax (ST) and Rs 50 upcountry expenses until the last trading day.
WORLD SCENARIO: Fund and speculative buying and sales featured New York cotton trading through the week though jump in the futures was witnessed on fears of China and India's huge lifting.
The result of the impact could be seen as March opened at 68.70 cents and 70.65 cents, and closed at 72.10 cents and May opened at 70.65 cents, and closed at 733.77 cents a pound.
On the opening day futures closed marginally higher on modest fund buying as most players waited for market-moving news, now that first notice day is out of the way.
Cotton popped up at the start, gradually grinding its way to its session peak before pulling back when trade sales capped the market.
The Tuesday session was as good as the previous day's when slight push higher was marked.
Market sources took note of the spectacular rally in soyabean prices set a new 15-1/2 year high on US supply worries and fears of crop damage in Brazil and Argentina.
On Wednesday futures ended mostly easier on modest fund sales although most players appeared to be setting back awaiting the rebase of USDA's weekly export sales report.
Besides, attention will also be focussed on the pace of Chinese cotton purchases.
On Thursday futures rallied to a strong finish on trade and speculative buying fuelled by talk China will be buying more cotton in the coming weeks.
Traders, however, commented that early sales by speculators knocked the market down to its lows for the day.
Analysts said the market would head higher on follow through/buying.
The Chinese were again the top buyers of US cotton in the weekly USDA export sales report.
USDA said upland cotton sales hit 198,800 RBs. Friday session closed higher on fresh rounds of fund buying extended a rally initially fuelled by talk Chinese will buy cotton shortly.
Analysts said the market may slowly grind higher next week as speculative fund sought to push the May contract past resistance at 75 cents.
The weekly marketing outlook report by economists the said actions by China whose heavy buying rallied prices world dictate market volatility.
LOCAL TRADING: Trading in cotton local markets was hardly any feature except on the week opening day and towards close of the week.
Some life was witnessed in side issues such as hedge trading which is likely to be started this season.
Hopes pinned that if better provision of water has any chance, Balochistan can grow five to six lakh bales and more.
The official rate was not touched as low trading proved discouraging to ginners until Friday.
However, jump in New York futures and its impact in local trading was that sellers improved their higher asking prices in ready.
The opening day saw some 4,000 bales changing hands. It gave hope that similar quantity would continue through the week, but only Friday saw some trading.
The ginners discussed, and examined the prospect of rate push, but held back decision to wait until next week.
The spot rate was reduced by Rs 25 to Rs 3,125. Second day's trading witnessed easier under tone.
The spot rate was left unchanged prices in ready off-take ranged between Rs 2,900 and Rs 3,000.
Third day also saw low trading. The under pressured ginners due to low purchasers decided for the second time to cut official rate to induce spinners.
The spot rate was quoted at Rs 3,100 after erosion of Rs 25. Deals were nil as market sources reported. Thursday, too, failed to witness buying activity.
The late supply of deals has made if impossible to get any. Some past days deals were presented in DMR.
The rising futures prices in New York came as warning here prompting spinners to rush to market. Nearly 6,000 bales changed hands.
While spot remained unchanged at Rs 3,100, physical sales saw ginners raised asking prices which ranged between Rs 2,800 and Rs 3,200. Saturday's session had a modest sales.
REASON: the spinner apprehended cotton prices could turn firmer under impact of short crop and greater demand. The spot rate remained stuck to Rs 3,100.
BETTER ESTIMATE: A report on Sindh cotton crop claimed better production estimate than higher was being reported.
However, what was still striking in the report was about a case of misappropriation of Rs 4.4 million had been registered, but no one had been brought to book so far.
The fluctuating production estimate and deviation from standard 170-kg weight are likely to reveal another sort of misappropriation bid is likely.
The Customs department has already alleged the weight differential had resulted in Rs 2 billion loss.
No case appears to have been registered. The time healer is likely to make authorities who showed to have paid heed, would slow indifference.
The report worth taking note of is that Sindh is expected to produce 2.2 million bales of cotton in the current season.
The record by Sindh is four million bales. The fact has been justified by saying that up to February 15, Sindh had seen arrival of 1,906,446 bales of 170-kg.
The report alleges that export of Sindh cotton to Punjab has been under estimated. Besides, report states that there is around 1,000 acres under cultivation between the check-post and the Punjab border.
The production over this land has not been accounted for. From day one vested interest study on their own and report their survey results, their figures vary hugely.
The time comes when lapses are related to one or more factors. One such excuse is placed that "sowing was done late, and late marketing seen, or some sound ginners had kept back cotton to sell when prices rode high.
Even weight differential is used for defending the conflicting figures. The PCC this season had to change its figures twice from nearly 12 million bales to 10 million bales. No stone is being left unturned to convince officials that production won't be more than 9 or 9.2 million bales.
The authorities appear to have little power to bring an end to the estimates varying too much. Such haplessness of authorities is pathetic. They must, if they really want to mend the wrong, trust themselves.
HEDGE TRADING: The hedge trading is un-Islamic has often discussed decided that it was not true. Both the local and the International scholars have declared as such.
In 70s some religious leaders had demanded the hedge trading be discontinued from time to time, and the issue was raised, but Islamabad had objected which has other tinge than religion also, ginners have held since quite long. But voices were throttled.
However, those not satisfied that the system was not against Islamic principles felt pressing to start it again.
Even, according to relevant people, Saudi and Al-Azhar University scholars have said that it's not un-Islamic unless agreed term on delivery and payment is not violated.
The re-emergence of demand proves that the atmosphere is clearer and road blocks have been cleared.
The food minister has promised to look into the matter. The KCA had been conducting at the time when system was discontinued.
The organisations have been very active and hope they will be given authority to restart hedge trading at the KCA premise.
However, there are others, who believe that the KCA might be allowed to share practice with some other organisation! Hope for the best!
Comments
Comments are closed.