Oil prices edged down on Wednesday as Venezuela said oil operations were unaffected by violent anti-government protests, but dealers said the market could rebound strongly on fresh US stocks data.
US light crude shed 14 cents to $36.52 a barrel, extending a 20-cent drop in New York after Opec's admission of overproduction gave prices a reprieve from year-high levels of just under $37 a barrel on Tuesday.
A Reuters survey of 10 analysts forecast sustained tightness in US stocks of crude oil, gasoline and distillates when the government Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly inventories report later on Wednesday.
This was mainly due to the temporary closure of the Mississippi River, which disrupted crude oil supplies to some US Gulf Coast refineries, industry sources said.
"If the stats are bullish, we could blow through these levels and see a $1 rise in a hurry," a New York-based broker said.
The survey predicted an average drop of 1.5 million barrels in crude stocks for the week ending February 27, a draw of 1.1 million barrels for gasoline and a 1.6-million-barrel decline for distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel.
If the gasoline stock forecast was to hold, that would be the second-straight week of declines after it fell to 203.4 million barrels, 9.5 million barrels below the five-year average, for the week ended February 20.
Gasoline stocks are crucial in overall price direction as refiners prepare for surging demand ahead of the summer driving period beginning in the last week of May.
Asian gasoline supplies are also tight with prices jumping to a one-year high in Tokyo on Tuesday as refinery shutdowns in may coincide with the start of Japan's driving season, traders said.
Indonesia is also stockpiling ahead of elections in April and July, while China, Asia's largest exporter, slashed its March gasoline exports by 16 percent from February due to strong demand and refinery shutdowns.
Fears of disruptions to supplies from Venezuela, Opec's third-biggest producer, eased when state oil firm PDVSA said operations were not affected by violent protests by foes of President Hugo Chavez who were demanding a referendum on his rule.
At least five people have been killed in clashes between troops and protesters, which had sparked fears of a repeat of last year's two-month strike at PDVSA that briefly shut most of the production of the world's number five oil exporter.
Concerns over a supply crunch were also tempered by Opec President Purnomo Yusgiantoro who admitted the cartel was still pumping oil above official output limits in a bid to cool prices, despite the group's pledge to eliminate quota-busting.
Prices have jumped more than $4 a barrel since Opec's February 10 decision to cut oversupply and trim output by one million barrels per day from April 1.
Adding weight to Purnomo's remarks, Opec oil production dipped only slightly in February, mainly due to export problems from Iraq, a Reuters survey released on Tuesday showed.
"Opec has had to do nothing to get oil prices to this level, simply hinting at production cuts to come rather than implement anything of substance," said brokers Refco.
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